NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	93		Excitement	3.8 [843]		MVP	Amir Johnson (TOR): +9.2%
Toronto Raptors	103		Comeback	1.3 [752]		LVP	Rodney Stuckey (DET): -5.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damien Wilkins	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	75%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	8	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ben Gordon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Walker Russell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	5	36%	-0.01	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00
Brandon Knight	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.06	14	53%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	16	41%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Maxiell	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	11	50%	0.03	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Greg Monroe	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.01	0.05	21	52%	0.04	4	-0.09	16	75%	-0.02
Rodney Stuckey	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	7	73%	0.09	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	15	64%	0.06	3	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	12	50%	0.08	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.01
Aaron Gray	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	9	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	33%	-0.01
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.02	14	57%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.00	0.04	7	62%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.01	4	55%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.0	28.0	16.6	23.6	2.7	39.6	138.2
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +41.7%

DET -2.5%

TOR +7.6%

TOR +4.4%

DET -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	TOR	NBA	DET	TOR	NBA
this game	15.7	15.6	15.6	101.1	112.0	102.8
season	16.3	16.5		99.5	98.9
opponent	15.2	15.4		102.9	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.8	16.7	15.7	13.9	15.7
TOR	14.5	16.8	18.6	13.3	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walker Russell	42	43	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.26	6	-16	22	14.4	16.7	-2.32	15.1	16.1	-1.07
Ben Wallace	11	12	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.01	-4	-6	2	18.4	15.3	3.07	15.6	15.6	-0.07
Damien Wilkins	33	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.18	2	-12	14	14.7	16.2	-1.46	14.1	16.5	-2.37
Rodney Stuckey	35	35	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.01	-8	-2	-6	16.9	14.9	2.07	14.5	16.3	-1.82
Jonas Jerebko	32	33	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-6	2	16.4	15.2	1.19	17.2	14.8	2.40
Ben Gordon	32	32	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.19	-17	7	-24	17.7	14.6	3.10	17.7	14.5	3.19
Jason Maxiell	53	54	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.08	-8	-2	-6	16.3	14.8	1.55	16.8	14.0	2.75
Greg Monroe	76	74	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.16	-6	-4	-2	15.2	17.6	-2.37	14.8	19.0	-4.18
Brandon Knight	75	74	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.35	-1	-9	8	14.9	19.0	-4.09	15.6	15.8	-0.17
Tayshaun Prince	71	69	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.09	-10	0	-10	15.3	17.0	-1.67	15.6	15.7	-0.01

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Johnson	77	78	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.00	14	-4	18	15.5	16.5	-1.07	15.6	16.3	-0.73
DeMar DeRozan	76	76	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.33	2	8	-6	15.6	15.8	-0.21	15.8	14.8	1.03
Jose Calderon	66	66	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.12	8	2	6	14.7	17.9	-3.18	15.4	16.3	-0.95
Aaron Gray	57	57	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.17	5	5	0	14.6	17.3	-2.65	17.3	13.0	4.25
Amir Johnson	49	50	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.01	10	0	10	14.9	16.5	-1.55	15.4	16.0	-0.62
Ed Davis	40	38	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.13	6	4	2	17.6	14.1	3.47	15.9	15.5	0.39
Leandro Barbosa	43	43	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	8	-6	14.9	16.3	-1.38	14.2	16.9	-2.69
Jerryd Bayless	36	36	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.11	2	8	-6	18.0	14.1	3.87	15.9	15.5	0.46
Jamaal Magloire	16	16	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	9	-8	17.9	15.2	2.78	14.2	16.0	-1.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.64,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 109, PHI 131	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.49,0.57,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.75,0.8,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.68,0.71,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.89,0.88,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
WAS 98, ORL 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.57,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.77,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.8,0.82,0.88,0.9,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
IND 86, UTA 110	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.69,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%