NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	95		Excitement	4.7 [889]		MVP	Kevin Martin (SAC): +19.7%
Sacramento Kings	100		Comeback	1.3 [852]		LVP	Beno Udrih (SAC): -11.0%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
O.J. Mayo	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1	0.14	0.01	0.05	19	68%	0.14	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Darko Milicic	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	3	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rudy Gay	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.04	12	53%	0.08	4	-0.05	10	70%	0.01
Hakim Warrick	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	57%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Kyle Lowry	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	0.05	-0.01	0.03	10	58%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Greg Buckner	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quinton Ross	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	4	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Marc Gasol	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	3	62%	0.05	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Mike Conley	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	3	44%	-0.02	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Darrell Arthur	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	7	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2	0.20	0.16	0.03	-0.01	18	67%	0.24	2	-0.04	13	77%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.02	-0.01	13	68%	0.17	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.01	-0.03	9	65%	0.10	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Bobby Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	4	125%	0.09	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	11	44%	0.01	2	-0.03	3	33%	-0.02
Quincy Douby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.14	-0.00	-0.04	9	22%	-0.04	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	3.4	31.9	15.7	31.4	3.5	40.5	151.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +36.4%

SAC +1.0%

SAC +13.2%

SAC +0.7%

MEM -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	SAC	NBA	MEM	SAC	NBA
this game	16.1	15.2	15.5	102.2	109.9	106.4
season	16.1	15.0		101.7	104.0
opponent	15.1	15.3		112.7	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.9	19.1	16.5	13.2	16.1
SAC	14.7	15.9	13.5	16.8	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darko Milicic	30	31	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.26	8	-13	21	15.5	16.4	-0.90	18.4	13.5	4.85
O.J. Mayo	67	67	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.33	5	-10	15	16.1	16.1	-0.01	15.9	13.2	2.69
Mike Conley	34	34	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.04	-5	0	-5	16.9	15.6	1.31	14.4	15.6	-1.24
Darrell Arthur	31	31	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.01	-7	2	-9	19.1	14.6	4.44	14.1	15.7	-1.65
Greg Buckner	29	28	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.03	-7	2	-9	15.6	16.3	-0.71	16.0	14.8	1.23
Rudy Gay	65	63	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.29	0	-5	5	16.1	16.1	0.05	14.8	16.0	-1.23
Kyle Lowry	59	57	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.32	0	-5	5	15.6	16.9	-1.31	15.6	14.4	1.24
Quinton Ross	47	45	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.38	2	-7	9	14.4	17.8	-3.36	15.1	15.3	-0.24
Hakim Warrick	40	41	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.09	-9	4	-13	16.2	16.1	0.12	14.6	15.6	-1.01
Marc Gasol	63	58	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.04	-12	7	-19	16.3	15.6	0.75	13.7	17.8	-4.03

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Spencer Hawes	66	69	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.06	17	-12	29	14.1	18.2	-4.10	17.0	13.5	3.51
John Salmons	82	86	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.34	5	0	5	14.6	20.3	-5.71	15.5	24.0	-8.53
Kevin Martin	80	82	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.33	2	3	-1	15.6	12.4	3.21	16.3	14.6	1.67
Beno Udrih	52	55	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.12	7	-2	9	13.9	16.8	-2.90	16.1	16.2	-0.09
Mikki Moore	59	60	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.26	2	3	-1	15.1	15.4	-0.39	16.1	16.0	0.12
Bobby Brown	39	38	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.23	-2	7	-9	16.8	13.9	2.90	16.2	16.1	0.09
Jason Thompson	48	49	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.32	-6	11	-17	16.7	13.4	3.31	14.6	17.8	-3.16
Bobby Jackson	13	11	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.05	1	4	-3	9.8	16.1	-6.23	14.4	16.3	-1.98
Quincy Douby	10	10	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.02	1	4	-3	19.3	14.7	4.62	19.5	15.7	3.80
Shelden Williams	6	5	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	7	-9	23.7	14.6	9.08	22.6	15.7	6.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.77,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.68,0.77,0.79,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 80, SAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.76,0.65,0.61,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.76,0.86,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
WAS 98, ORL 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.57,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.77,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.8,0.82,0.88,0.9,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
DET 93, TOR 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.64,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.7%