NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	89		Excitement	8.6 [160]		MVP	Travis Best (IND): +9.3%
Indiana Pacers	90		Comeback	4.8 [597]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -38.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Bowen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.03	-0.01	2	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	14	48%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Raef LaFrentz	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,0.02,0.02,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	16	52%	0.13	3	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
Popeye Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Herren	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	9	39%	0.00	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11	0.02	-0.15	-0.02	20	55%	0.07	2	-0.19	2	50%	-0.03
George McCloud	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16	-0.07	-0.11	-0.01	11	32%	-0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22	-0.12	-0.09	0.01	8	25%	-0.11	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.38	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.27,-0.38	-0.13	-0.27	-0.02	14	33%	-0.30	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.01	5	81%	0.10	1	-0.01	6	83%	-0.00
Sam Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.01	7	71%	0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Miller	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.03,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	12	38%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	8	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Derrick McKey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.05	0.00	2	87%	0.05	1	-0.08	4	100%	0.06
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Rik Smits	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	8	50%	-0.04	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.09	-0.16	-0.01	6	29%	-0.21	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.13
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,-0.28	-0.28	-0.17	-0.13	-0.02	24	34%	-0.26	1	-0.02	8	37%	-0.13

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	1.6	23.0	15.8	23.1	2.3	37.4	129.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +22.6%

IND +8.4%

IND +0.7%

IND +25.6%

DEN -7.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	IND	NBA	DEN	IND	NBA
this game	16.2	14.1	15.2	93.7	94.7	101.7
season	14.8	15.4		101.5	106.5
opponent	15.1	15.0		101.8	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.7	17.1	17.5	16.8	16.2
IND	14.0	14.2	14.5	13.9	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Popeye Jones	6	7	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.09	7	-8	15	16.8	16.2	0.68	18.0	13.8	4.19
James Posey	44	45	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.23	11	-12	23	16.2	16.2	0.05	14.5	13.7	0.79
Chris Herren	20	20	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.11	-4	3	-7	17.0	16.0	1.08	13.5	14.3	-0.72
Ryan Bowen	18	18	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.17	-9	8	-17	18.3	15.7	2.63	14.3	14.1	0.20
Chris Gatling	55	51	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.07	-6	5	-11	16.7	15.5	1.25	13.6	14.7	-1.10
Keon Clark	77	76	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.51	6	-7	13	15.7	18.3	-2.63	14.3	13.5	0.74
Raef LaFrentz	50	52	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.31	-4	3	-7	16.3	16.0	0.30	14.2	14.0	0.13
Nick Van Exel	75	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.58	3	-4	7	16.0	17.0	-1.08	14.3	13.5	0.72
Antonio McDyess	79	80	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.61	1	-2	3	15.7	18.7	-2.99	14.1	14.4	-0.34
George McCloud	51	51	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.37	-10	9	-19	16.2	16.2	-0.05	13.5	14.9	-1.39

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick McKey	53	53	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.39	18	-17	35	13.9	14.4	-0.48	16.7	15.6	1.13
Travis Best	52	51	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.41	13	-12	25	13.7	14.6	-0.81	16.4	16.0	0.33
Sam Perkins	43	42	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.04	16	-15	31	15.2	13.2	1.91	16.7	15.8	0.84
Reggie Miller	75	76	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.62	-4	5	-9	14.0	14.6	-0.61	15.7	18.2	-2.45
Jalen Rose	87	87	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.46	-6	7	-13	13.8	17.7	-3.97	15.8	20.2	-4.42
Austin Croshere	40	39	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.02	8	-7	15	13.8	14.4	-0.59	16.3	16.1	0.14
Dale Davis	52	53	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.37	-6	7	-13	14.2	14.0	0.17	16.5	15.8	0.70
Mark Jackson	37	37	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	0.06	-16	17	-33	14.8	13.7	1.18	16.2	16.2	0.03
Rik Smits	36	37	-0.50	1.00	-1.51	0.02	-18	19	-37	14.3	14.0	0.31	16.1	16.3	-0.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.24,0.18,0.23,0.22,0.3,0.31,0.35,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.33,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.33,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.53,0.53,0.69,0.85,0.67,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 65, DET 69	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.36,0.43,0.44,0.33,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.46,0.46,0.55,0.84,0.66,0.96,1	93.7%
MIN 76, PHX 81	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.31,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.34,0.34,0.52,0.38,0.27,0.26,0.39,0.39,0.69,0.79,0.78,0.98,1	91.1%
DET 94, CHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.43,0.34,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.26,0.28,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.38,0.3,0.34,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.84,1	91.0%