NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	94		Excitement	7.8 [282]		MVP	Luol Deng (CHI): +29.6%
Chicago Bulls	95		Comeback	3.5 [606]		LVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): -12.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Calderon	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	-0.00	-0.04	8	61%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Singler	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	4	89%	0.08	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Knight	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.09	0.04	-0.04	6	42%	0.06	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	62%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Monroe	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.04,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	12	60%	0.12	4	-0.14	6	67%	-0.03
Andre Drummond	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.01	7	47%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.08
Kim English	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.07,0.01,-0.07	0.12	-0.12	0.06	19	60%	-0.02	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12	-0.02	-0.10	-0.01	13	47%	-0.03	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.04

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.18,0.16,0.19,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.07	0.23	0.00	18	53%	0.33	1	-0.03	17	65%	-0.08
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.01	7	70%	0.12	1	-0.02	9	78%	-0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	7	59%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Marquis Teague	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	55%	0.05	1	-0.05	8	62%	-0.02
Carlos Boozer	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	11	46%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,-0.02,-0.05,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.07	-0.01	18	44%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	5	27%	-0.07	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.5	2.0	30.8	15.5	25.6	1.6	40.0	146.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET -3.7%

CHI +15.4%

CHI +10.7%

CHI +24.7%

CHI +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CHI	NBA	DET	CHI	NBA
this game	16.1	16.3	15.4	105.6	106.7	104.1
season	15.7	16.6		102.3	101.7
opponent	15.2	15.5		102.3	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.2	16.1	17.7	16.4	16.1
CHI	17.1	15.2	17.4	15.7	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Drummond	41	41	0.24	-0.74	0.98	-0.08	11	-12	23	15.2	16.8	-1.66	17.5	15.2	2.26
Khris Middleton	12	12	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.02	1	-2	3	14.9	16.2	-1.33	16.0	16.3	-0.34
Kim English	22	21	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-1	1	17.9	15.5	2.45	14.3	16.9	-2.63
Kyle Singler	51	51	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	1	-3	15.6	16.7	-1.03	16.1	16.5	-0.36
Greg Monroe	59	58	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.40	8	-9	17	15.7	16.9	-1.21	16.8	15.3	1.49
Brandon Knight	66	66	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.35	6	-7	13	15.8	16.7	-0.91	17.5	12.7	4.85
Jonas Jerebko	34	33	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.05	-11	10	-21	17.5	15.2	2.32	15.0	17.0	-2.01
Jose Calderon	62	63	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.41	0	-1	1	15.7	16.8	-1.07	16.6	15.6	1.01
Rodney Stuckey	54	54	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.53	-8	7	-15	16.6	15.2	1.48	15.4	17.7	-2.25
Charlie Villanueva	44	46	-0.79	0.29	-1.09	-0.50	-10	9	-19	16.3	15.8	0.54	15.5	17.2	-1.73

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	56	56	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.41	13	-12	25	15.8	17.1	-1.22	16.4	15.5	0.83
Luol Deng	78	78	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.54	5	-4	9	16.3	16.3	0.02	16.3	14.5	1.74
Nate Robinson	52	53	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.31	12	-11	23	15.9	16.8	-0.93	16.8	15.0	1.75
Daequan Cook	49	48	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.10	11	-10	21	14.8	18.1	-3.24	16.3	15.8	0.53
Jimmy Butler	70	71	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.50	-3	4	-7	16.6	15.2	1.38	16.4	14.9	1.48
Kirk Hinrich	65	64	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.34	-5	6	-11	17.1	14.0	3.14	15.1	18.6	-3.52
Marquis Teague	1	0	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.04	-2	3	-5	2.0	16.5	-14.45	0.0	16.1	-16.07
Nazr Mohammed	33	33	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	0.06	-12	13	-25	17.1	15.8	1.22	15.5	16.4	-0.83
Carlos Boozer	41	42	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	0.05	-14	15	-29	17.0	15.7	1.36	15.5	16.6	-1.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.43,0.34,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.26,0.28,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.38,0.3,0.34,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 92, MIL 94	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.37,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.77,0.86,0.89,0.69,0.84,1	92.9%
NJN 94, PHI 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.35,0.41,0.27,0.37,0.25,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.47,0.63,0.53,0.54,0.67,0.74,0.79,0.84,0.98,1	92.8%
SAC 77, LAC 83	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.47,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.3,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.72,0.75,0.84,0.85,0.92,1	92.8%