NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	92		Excitement	7.9 [253]		MVP	Monta Ellis (MIL): +25.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	94		Comeback	3.9 [545]		LVP	Jrue Holiday (PHI): -38.9%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Evan Turner	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.1	-0.06	0.13	-0.03	19	48%	0.19	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Royal Ivey	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.00	2	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nick Young	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.11	-0.04	0.02	6	87%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Spencer Hawes	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	14	56%	0.08	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Damien Wilkins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lavoy Allen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	7	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Arnett Moultrie	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	5	42%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jeremy Pargo	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	-0.39	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.39	-0.12	-0.27	0.00	17	42%	-0.20	5	-0.19	4	75%	-0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.27,0.26	0.26	0.03	0.20	-0.02	24	50%	0.28	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	7	69%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	7	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.04	0.01	13	61%	0.08	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	11	36%	0.01	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.01
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.08,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	21	47%	0.04	4	-0.14	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.8	28.0	12.8	28.2	2.4	33.4	130.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +30.7%

PHI -3.2%

MIL +6.6%

MIL +2.0%

MIL +13.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	MIL	NBA	PHI	MIL	NBA
this game	15.8	16.2	15.4	102.2	104.4	104.1
season	15.5	14.7		100.5	101.6
opponent	15.3	15.7		103.9	104.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	13.5	19.1	15.2	15.7	15.8
MIL	16.5	15.2	14.8	18.6	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dorell Wright	12	11	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.00	2	-4	6	19.3	15.2	4.12	14.4	16.5	-2.13
Jeremy Pargo	35	34	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.09	-2	0	-2	16.7	15.2	1.50	14.3	17.4	-3.16
Lavoy Allen	52	52	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.02	-1	-1	0	16.0	15.5	0.46	15.2	17.7	-2.51
Arnett Moultrie	36	36	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.05	1	-3	4	17.4	14.6	2.80	14.6	17.3	-2.66
Damien Wilkins	8	8	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.09	-5	3	-8	18.4	15.5	2.86	16.9	16.2	0.70
Evan Turner	76	75	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.39	1	-3	4	15.9	14.9	0.99	16.2	16.3	-0.04
Royal Ivey	20	21	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.38	0	-2	2	15.9	15.7	0.17	17.9	15.7	2.12
Jrue Holiday	74	74	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.55	0	-2	2	15.1	19.0	-3.93	17.0	12.7	4.31
Nick Young	60	62	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.50	-2	0	-2	14.6	18.1	-3.50	17.2	14.0	3.19
Spencer Hawes	77	77	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.55	-4	2	-6	15.0	20.3	-5.31	16.8	12.9	3.87

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luc Mbah a Moute	74	72	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.46	6	-4	10	16.7	13.9	2.79	15.1	18.5	-3.42
Brandon Jennings	80	80	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.43	5	-3	8	16.5	14.2	2.29	15.2	19.9	-4.65
Monta Ellis	87	87	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.42	3	-1	4	16.2	16.7	-0.45	15.8	14.7	1.14
Mike Dunleavy	61	60	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.40	3	-1	4	16.5	15.6	0.90	16.6	14.1	2.50
Samuel Dalembert	60	62	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.26	1	1	0	16.8	15.2	1.60	15.4	16.6	-1.27
Ekpe Udoh	28	26	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.16	2	0	2	15.0	16.8	-1.79	17.0	15.3	1.73
Ersan Ilyasova	36	39	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	4	-6	15.3	16.9	-1.55	14.7	16.6	-1.90
John Henson	11	11	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.04	-4	6	-10	14.5	16.5	-1.92	18.8	15.3	3.48
Beno Udrih	13	13	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.03	-4	6	-10	14.8	16.5	-1.71	18.7	15.3	3.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.37,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.77,0.86,0.89,0.69,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 77, LAC 83	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.47,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.3,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.72,0.75,0.84,0.85,0.92,1	93.4%
DET 94, CHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.43,0.34,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.26,0.28,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.38,0.3,0.34,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.84,1	92.9%
ATL 75, GSW 80	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.29,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.27,0.29,0.23,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.41,0.37,0.48,0.38,0.26,0.43,0.43,0.63,0.64,0.76,0.78,0.85,0.93,0.96,0.96,1	92.4%