NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	98		Excitement	5.4 [713]		MVP	Terrell Brandon (MIN): +7.1%
Minnesota Timberwolves	102		Comeback	1.0 [922]		LVP	Avery Johnson (SAS): -9.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Kerr	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	5	75%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Mario Elie	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	87%	0.05	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Antonio Daniels	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
David Robinson	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07	0.01	-0.05	0.03	19	58%	-0.03	2	-0.04	12	75%	-0.02
Terry Porter	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	2	67%	-0.01	2	-0.06	8	100%	0.04
Malik Rose	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	0.05	10	64%	0.03	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Jerome Kersey	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	7	44%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Avery Johnson	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	16	46%	-0.06	2	-0.04	5	20%	-0.05

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.02	0.02	11	83%	0.15	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	10	64%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.06	-0.01	23	58%	0.16	6	-0.12	4	75%	0.00
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
William Avery	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	7	29%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	8	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Malik Sealy	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	12	43%	-0.02	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.0	31.1	22.4	27.5	2.6	45.5	154.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +37.7%

SAS -14.0%

MIN +18.8%

MIN +2.8%

MIN +4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIN	NBA	SAS	MIN	NBA
this game	16.9	14.5	15.2	106.5	112.1	101.7
season	15.5	15.1		101.6	103.5
opponent	15.7	15.4		101.1	95.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.7	17.6	16.8	15.7	16.9
MIN	13.6	15.8	13.2	15.7	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio Daniels	24	24	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-5	6	17.4	16.8	0.64	14.3	14.6	-0.31
Samaki Walker	24	26	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.05	-5	1	-6	17.2	16.8	0.41	14.6	14.5	0.14
Steve Kerr	40	40	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.35	6	-10	16	16.9	16.9	0.01	15.2	14.0	1.22
Jerome Kersey	45	43	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-1	-2	17.3	16.6	0.63	14.1	14.9	-0.71
Mario Elie	46	46	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.00	-10	6	-16	17.0	16.9	0.07	13.7	15.3	-1.62
Malik Rose	82	80	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.51	7	-11	18	16.9	17.0	-0.06	14.8	12.5	2.35
Terry Porter	53	53	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.33	-1	-3	2	16.6	17.4	-0.72	15.0	13.8	1.16
Avery Johnson	68	67	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.36	-5	1	-6	16.8	17.4	-0.64	14.6	14.3	0.31
David Robinson	78	76	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.31	-10	6	-16	16.9	17.4	-0.57	14.2	16.2	-2.02

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	79	80	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.44	3	1	2	14.9	12.1	2.80	17.0	16.5	0.51
Terrell Brandon	67	67	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.21	10	-6	16	13.9	16.2	-2.24	16.5	18.2	-1.67
Malik Sealy	70	73	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.17	7	-3	10	14.6	14.3	0.24	16.8	17.5	-0.73
Wally Szczerbiak	68	67	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.21	4	0	4	14.6	14.4	0.17	16.8	17.4	-0.57
Anthony Peeler	44	45	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.34	-1	5	-6	14.4	14.7	-0.30	17.1	16.8	0.28
Rasho Nesterovic	41	42	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.16	1	3	-2	14.5	14.6	-0.10	17.9	16.2	1.68
Dean Garrett	31	31	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.02	7	-3	10	14.3	14.6	-0.34	16.1	17.4	-1.23
Joe Smith	29	29	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.26	-7	11	-18	13.0	15.2	-2.18	16.6	17.1	-0.58
Tom Hammonds	2	1	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.02	2	2	0	26.0	14.3	11.74	25.0	16.9	8.14
Bobby Jackson	0	1	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	4	-4	0.0	14.5	-14.52	22.0	16.9	5.11
William Avery	24	24	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.16	-6	10	-16	16.2	13.9	2.24	18.0	16.6	1.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.69,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.85,0.82,0.82,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.85,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.93,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 84, POR 96	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.73,0.77,0.71,0.76,0.74,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.87,0.84,0.79,0.91,0.91,0.87,0.8,0.82,0.92,0.85,0.97,1,1	95.1%
NJN 99, WAS 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.79,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.75,0.7,0.71,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.8,0.77,0.83,0.89,0.96,0.95,0.91,0.85,0.82,0.82,0.79,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.9,0.97,0.95,0.96,1,1	94.9%
LAL 102, MIA 109	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.71,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.9,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.89,0.89,0.87,0.81,0.91,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.81,0.93,0.95,0.98,1	94.5%