NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	83		Excitement	5.5 [705]		MVP	Elton Brand (CHI): +17.9%
Indiana Pacers	100		Comeback	2.6 [1052]		LVP	Randy Brown (CHI): -12.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Elton Brand	0.18	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.24	0.03	0.09	23	79%	0.23	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Hersey Hawkins	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dickey Simpkins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.06	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Will Perdue	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
John Starks	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	-0.02	13	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	36%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Michael Ruffin	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Carr	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	11	36%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	-0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	10	30%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Randy Brown	-0.13	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	7	14%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.05	0.01	9	71%	0.13	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.03	0.02	7	93%	0.15	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	8	67%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Derrick McKey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.01	10	58%	0.04	1	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.02	-0.01	0.07	14	67%	0.04	4	-0.11	5	100%	0.04
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.02	9	35%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rik Smits	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	10	48%	-0.04	3	-0.07	3	33%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.5	24.4	15.7	25.0	2.0	25.3	116.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +22.9%

IND +9.2%

IND +21.4%

CHI -3.7%

IND +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	IND	NBA	CHI	IND	NBA
this game	16.8	16.3	15.2	94.3	116.3	101.7
season	16.5	15.4		91.8	106.5
opponent	15.1	14.9		101.8	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.5	19.0	17.5	15.0	16.8
IND	16.5	14.4	15.9	18.4	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hersey Hawkins	61	58	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.09	-5	-12	7	16.7	16.9	-0.18	16.5	16.0	0.45
Dickey Simpkins	51	49	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.16	3	-20	23	16.3	17.4	-1.02	16.1	16.7	-0.59
Randy Brown	41	40	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.22	-11	-6	-5	18.2	15.5	2.64	14.9	17.6	-2.73
Metta World Peace	51	49	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.17	2	-19	21	16.9	16.6	0.29	16.8	15.7	1.07
Michael Ruffin	13	14	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.02	-6	-11	5	19.2	16.3	2.90	16.8	16.2	0.54
Elton Brand	72	70	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.03	-10	-7	-3	16.3	18.8	-2.51	16.3	16.5	-0.20
Will Perdue	28	28	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.06	-11	-6	-5	18.9	15.8	3.07	17.1	16.0	1.09
Chris Carr	40	39	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.18	-20	3	-23	16.6	16.9	-0.25	15.7	16.9	-1.23
Fred Hoiberg	27	28	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.09	-12	-5	-7	16.9	16.7	0.18	16.0	16.5	-0.45
John Starks	56	55	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.01	-15	-2	-13	15.1	19.7	-4.65	17.3	14.7	2.54

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Perkins	33	33	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.10	20	-3	23	16.8	16.0	0.78	18.2	15.9	2.37
Derrick McKey	46	47	0.61	-0.11	0.72	-0.10	24	-7	31	16.7	15.9	0.82	16.8	16.7	0.06
Austin Croshere	50	50	0.58	-0.08	0.66	-0.07	22	-5	27	16.2	16.5	-0.23	16.8	16.8	-0.00
Jalen Rose	77	79	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.04	16	1	15	16.5	15.2	1.25	16.7	17.3	-0.64
Travis Best	42	42	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.13	19	-2	21	16.2	16.5	-0.33	16.9	16.6	0.32
Mark Jackson	44	46	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.13	-2	19	-21	16.5	16.2	0.33	16.6	16.9	-0.32
Reggie Miller	58	59	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.13	2	15	-13	15.7	17.6	-1.88	16.2	17.9	-1.69
Dale Davis	41	43	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.09	-6	23	-29	16.0	16.7	-0.69	16.4	17.1	-0.67
Rik Smits	39	41	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.07	-10	27	-37	16.6	16.1	0.56	16.8	16.7	0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.59,0.74,0.87,0.82,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.91,0.9,0.97,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 105, OKC 112	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.36,0.31,0.37,0.39,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.78,0.87,0.81,0.76,0.77,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.99,1	95.0%
IND 88, SEA 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.64,0.7,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.74,0.76,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.97,1,1	94.3%
OKC 78, MIL 85	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.35,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,0.98,1	94.0%