NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	88		Excitement	6.3 [552]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (SEA): +12.2%
Seattle SuperSonics	99		Comeback	2.0 [712]		LVP	Jalen Rose (IND): -16.9%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.05	0.02	9	77%	0.17	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Austin Croshere	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jamison Brewer	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Bender	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	15	61%	0.06	7	-0.16	8	87%	0.02
Al Harrington	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.13	-0.01	-0.03	12	36%	-0.04	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	11	50%	-0.03	4	-0.08	6	67%	-0.00
Jalen Rose	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.10	-0.07	-0.01	12	42%	-0.04	4	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.06	0.01	16	63%	0.15	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Gary Payton	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.02	17	53%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Vin Baker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	15	54%	0.05	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.02
Brent Barry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	16	45%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Calvin Booth	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	6	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Olumide Oyedeji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Predrag Drobnjak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	4	30%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.13	0.00	-0.01	13	31%	-0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	49.5	2.0	29.2	16.4	24.6	1.6	31.2	154.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +3.7%

SEA +1.8%

SEA +12.5%

SEA +28.2%

SEA +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	SEA	NBA	IND	SEA	NBA
this game	14.4	15.6	15.6	91.7	103.1	102.3
season	15.3	16.0		101.6	106.3
opponent	15.8	15.4		103.9	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	14.9	13.2	15.8	13.9	14.4
SEA	15.8	14.5	16.2	16.1	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamison Brewer	3	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-9	7	8.0	14.6	-6.60	12.5	15.7	-3.17
Jalen Rose	60	59	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-13	15	14.6	14.1	0.50	15.7	15.4	0.37
Austin Croshere	11	11	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-9	7	16.1	14.2	1.91	15.2	15.7	-0.48
Jeff Foster	52	53	-0.17	-0.34	0.17	-0.19	1	-12	13	13.5	15.5	-2.04	15.9	15.2	0.72
Jonathan Bender	34	34	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.07	-10	-1	-9	15.3	13.9	1.35	14.7	16.1	-1.35
Jamaal Tinsley	85	85	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.22	-7	-4	-3	14.7	12.4	2.30	15.6	15.9	-0.34
Jermaine O'Neal	88	88	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	0	-11	14.2	16.2	-2.02	15.7	15.0	0.66
Al Harrington	57	57	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.03	-16	5	-21	14.6	14.1	0.58	15.4	16.0	-0.62
Reggie Miller	90	91	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.22	-10	-1	-9	14.3	16.5	-2.24	15.9	10.0	5.91

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashard Lewis	75	73	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.09	16	-5	21	15.3	16.7	-1.42	14.3	14.6	-0.28
Earl Watson	34	33	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.12	14	-3	17	15.1	15.9	-0.71	16.2	13.4	2.81
Gary Payton	91	90	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.17	10	1	9	15.5	17.6	-2.11	14.2	18.0	-3.84
Vin Baker	63	65	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.05	11	0	11	16.4	14.2	2.21	15.2	12.7	2.49
Desmond Mason	70	71	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	7	-3	15.3	16.4	-1.07	13.4	17.2	-3.85
Brent Barry	75	75	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.13	2	9	-7	15.9	14.5	1.44	14.5	14.1	0.32
Calvin Booth	45	44	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	11	-11	16.3	15.0	1.29	15.1	13.8	1.24
Predrag Drobnjak	14	14	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.03	1	10	-9	14.1	15.9	-1.79	13.1	14.6	-1.47
Olumide Oyedeji	13	15	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.08	-3	14	-17	14.7	15.7	-1.05	12.2	14.8	-2.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.64,0.7,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.74,0.76,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 98, OKC 109	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.4,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.66,0.78,0.78,0.86,0.81,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	94.5%
CHI 83, IND 100	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.59,0.74,0.87,0.82,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.91,0.9,0.97,1,1,1,1	94.3%
PHI 89, TOR 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.39,0.34,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.9,0.81,0.94,0.95,1	94.2%