NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	98		Excitement	5.8 [644]		MVP	James Harden (OKC): +15.9%
Oklahoma City Thunder	109		Comeback	2.1 [783]		LVP	Chucky Atkins (DET): -8.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Wallace	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	4	100%	0.11	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
DaJuan Summers	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	83%	0.03	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	10	55%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Will Bynum	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.05	0.01	0.04	9	67%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Austin Daye	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Charlie Villanueva	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	17	46%	0.03	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Rodney Stuckey	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.03	-0.03	0.06	24	54%	0.06	4	-0.12	9	100%	0.03
Jason Maxiell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	7	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	-0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.04	0.09	-0.03	11	58%	0.19	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.04	0.03	13	58%	0.10	1	-0.03	7	71%	-0.01
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.04	0.02	9	67%	0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	17	55%	0.09	3	-0.05	15	73%	-0.02
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.00	9	56%	0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	5	90%	0.07	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.04	-0.02	0.07	7	54%	-0.05	0	0.00	12	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.7	34.0	15.8	24.1	2.6	43.0	149.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +33.2%

OKC +7.1%

OKC +4.6%

OKC +5.5%

DET -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	OKC	NBA	DET	OKC	NBA
this game	17.5	14.8	15.3	110.1	122.5	106.0
season	16.8	15.0		104.0	106.2
opponent	15.5	15.2		103.1	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.0	17.7	19.3	15.6	17.5
OKC	17.1	13.0	16.7	13.2	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DaJuan Summers	18	18	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-12	13	12.8	18.7	-5.88	12.6	15.4	-2.78
Chucky Atkins	40	40	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.21	6	-17	23	18.3	16.9	1.40	16.3	13.7	2.62
Ben Wallace	46	47	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.15	3	-14	17	16.6	18.5	-1.90	15.0	14.7	0.31
Jason Maxiell	49	49	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.10	-10	-1	-9	18.2	16.6	1.59	15.1	14.4	0.69
Austin Daye	36	35	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.09	-6	-5	-1	18.1	17.1	1.03	16.5	13.8	2.68
Rodney Stuckey	69	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-6	1	17.4	18.0	-0.67	14.0	18.0	-3.97
Charlie Villanueva	44	43	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.23	-5	-6	1	19.2	15.9	3.23	15.8	13.9	1.86
Jonas Jerebko	61	59	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.03	-14	3	-17	17.5	17.5	-0.01	14.8	14.9	-0.15
Chris Wilcox	32	33	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.10	-10	-1	-9	18.2	17.2	0.98	14.7	14.9	-0.26
Will Bynum	50	50	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.00	-15	4	-19	16.7	18.6	-1.94	13.4	16.7	-3.31

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Serge Ibaka	42	42	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.10	17	-6	23	14.7	14.9	-0.22	17.5	17.6	-0.14
James Harden	49	49	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.03	19	-8	27	14.7	15.0	-0.40	16.9	18.2	-1.31
Nick Collison	48	49	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.17	7	4	3	14.5	15.3	-0.81	17.4	17.6	-0.22
Jeff Green	75	77	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.03	10	1	9	14.5	16.4	-1.90	17.2	19.6	-2.38
Shaun Livingston	33	35	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.08	7	4	3	16.5	13.8	2.68	18.8	16.7	2.14
Kevin Durant	73	71	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.13	4	7	-3	14.8	14.9	-0.05	17.7	16.8	0.94
Russell Westbrook	61	58	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.09	5	6	-1	13.9	16.8	-2.90	16.6	19.3	-2.65
Nenad Krstic	29	28	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.10	-5	16	-21	16.4	14.1	2.35	18.2	17.2	1.00
Thabo Sefolosha	35	36	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.15	-9	20	-29	15.1	14.7	0.42	18.6	16.8	1.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.4,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.66,0.78,0.78,0.86,0.81,0.74,0.85,0.87,0.98,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 88, SEA 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.64,0.7,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.74,0.76,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.97,1,1	94.5%
MEM 91, PHX 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.62,0.68,0.56,0.48,0.6,0.68,0.74,0.77,0.71,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.94,0.93,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1	94.1%
NYK 92, PHI 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.38,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.48,0.66,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.89,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.9%