NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	91		Excitement	8.8 [137]		MVP	Donyell Marshall (GSW): +16.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	86		Comeback	3.5 [62]		LVP	Mookie Blaylock (GSW): -36.4%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.11,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.12,0.12,0.17	0.12	0.07	0.02	25	66%	0.28	3	-0.12	6	83%	-0.03
Sam Jacobson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	9	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Tony Farmer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	15	37%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jason Caffey	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	7	42%	-0.05	2	-0.07	10	40%	-0.10
Vonteego Cummings	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21	-0.12	-0.09	-0.00	12	38%	-0.06	4	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Billy Owens	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.24,-0.24	-0.08	-0.12	0.04	4	31%	-0.15	1	-0.09	5	40%	-0.14
Mookie Blaylock	-0.36	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.33,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36	-0.21	-0.16	-0.01	14	21%	-0.20	4	-0.17	1	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	23	50%	0.12	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	13	48%	-0.00	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.05
Scott Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	3	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.04	-0.09	0.01	19	57%	0.05	2	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	4	25%	-0.07	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	5	33%	-0.12	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.22,-0.27	-0.27	-0.08	-0.19	-0.00	10	35%	-0.14	1	-0.12	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.8	28.5	14.8	21.5	1.6	37.2	128.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +22.6%

MIL -13.4%

GSW +50.0%

MIL -12.2%

GSW +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIL	NBA	GSW	MIL	NBA
this game	15.3	13.9	15.2	91.9	87.8	101.7
season	14.7	14.9		97.2	105.5
opponent	15.4	14.7		105.1	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.4	15.4	16.1	15.4	15.3
MIL	13.3	13.4	15.9	13.4	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donyell Marshall	89	89	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.36	6	-1	7	15.4	14.1	1.33	14.2	11.2	2.99
Billy Owens	46	45	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.37	5	0	5	16.2	14.5	1.61	13.8	14.1	-0.26
Jason Caffey	87	85	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.37	5	0	5	14.8	19.1	-4.31	13.5	17.0	-3.53
Mookie Blaylock	84	83	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.13	11	-6	17	15.1	16.5	-1.46	14.2	12.6	1.58
Sam Jacobson	51	50	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.16	3	2	1	14.4	16.3	-1.90	14.8	13.0	1.76
Vonteego Cummings	64	64	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.40	-7	12	-19	16.1	13.9	2.22	12.8	16.1	-3.25
Erick Dampier	60	60	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	3	-1	14.9	15.9	-0.96	14.5	13.1	1.36
Tony Farmer	14	14	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	5	-5	17.6	14.9	2.65	13.9	14.0	-0.10

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glenn Robinson	80	80	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.19	3	-8	11	13.6	15.6	-1.98	15.1	16.3	-1.20
Danny Manning	40	41	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-3	1	14.2	13.7	0.53	16.0	14.8	1.17
Sam Cassell	76	76	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.19	-1	-4	3	14.4	12.4	1.97	14.9	16.5	-1.60
Ervin Johnson	77	78	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.35	3	-8	11	13.5	15.4	-1.90	15.8	13.3	2.49
Vinny Del Negro	36	37	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	-2	-1	12.4	14.9	-2.49	15.7	15.0	0.65
Scott Williams	52	50	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.02	-10	5	-15	16.2	11.4	4.72	14.6	16.0	-1.44
Ray Allen	85	86	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.36	-8	3	-11	14.1	13.2	0.90	15.3	15.5	-0.19
Tim Thomas	44	47	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.39	-7	2	-9	12.7	14.9	-2.24	15.3	15.3	0.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.63,0.69,0.64,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.58,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.6,0.62,0.46,0.33,0.24,0.27,0.41,0.2,0.34,0.32,0.21,0.33,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 89, ATL 83	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.75,0.77,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.29,0.28,0.27,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.28,0.15,0.26,0	92.2%
SAS 97, DAL 91	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.57,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.28,0.21,0.29,0.22,0.15,0.28,0.22,0.16,0	91.5%
NOP 117, IND 112	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.86,0.76,0.75,0.72,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.33,0.38,0.53,0.4,0.47,0.25,0.11,0.09,0.16,0	91.2%