NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	97		Excitement	7.5 [349]		MVP	Bruce Bowen (SAS): +17.2%
Dallas Mavericks	91		Comeback	3.5 [244]		LVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): -18.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.27,0.17,0.17	0.06	0.12	0.01	6	72%	0.21	1	-0.04	6	17%	-0.19
Beno Udrih	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	2	80%	0.07	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Tony Parker	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	11	56%	0.08	1	-0.03	12	75%	0.01
Francisco Elson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	7	75%	0.08	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Michael Finley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	11	43%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jacque Vaughn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.04	0.03	-0.06	0.01	12	55%	0.01	1	-0.05	5	60%	-0.01
Robert Horry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06	-0.07	0.02	0.00	13	42%	0.02	3	-0.07	5	60%	-0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.10	-0.00	16	53%	0.17	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.03
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.04	-0.00	9	67%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	3	33%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.06
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	8	53%	0.01	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	6	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	5	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.02	-0.10	0.02	13	54%	-0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	5	57%	0.04	5	-0.15	4	50%	-0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.06,-0.14,-0.18	-0.18	0.03	-0.15	0.06	20	50%	-0.13	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	2.8	34.0	19.4	27.5	3.4	39.6	155.3
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +50.8%

DAL -5.9%

DAL -7.9%

SAS +8.6%

SAS +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	14.7	17.0	15.4	106.6	100.0	104.5
season	16.2	16.3		107.5	108.7
opponent	15.2	15.4		102.3	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.7	13.7	16.3	13.3	14.7
DAL	16.3	19.0	17.2	15.5	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	63	61	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.12	11	-5	16	15.2	13.6	1.52	17.2	16.4	0.78
Michael Finley	52	53	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	-5	16	15.4	13.8	1.62	16.2	18.0	-1.84
Bruce Bowen	67	66	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.26	4	2	2	14.0	16.6	-2.57	16.8	17.4	-0.56
Robert Horry	36	35	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.14	5	1	4	16.4	13.5	2.90	16.7	17.1	-0.35
Francisco Elson	50	53	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.29	0	6	-6	14.5	14.9	-0.38	16.3	17.8	-1.48
Tony Parker	65	64	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.26	1	5	-4	14.3	15.7	-1.45	17.5	15.7	1.73
Beno Udrih	26	27	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	1	4	15.7	14.3	1.45	15.7	17.5	-1.73
Manu Ginobili	65	66	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.35	-5	11	-16	14.4	15.3	-0.86	17.2	16.4	0.71
Jacque Vaughn	1	1	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	6	-6	0.0	14.9	-14.86	17.0	17.0	0.04
Fabricio Oberto	30	29	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.03	-2	8	-10	13.2	15.4	-2.18	19.1	16.0	3.15

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Buckner	32	33	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.00	1	-7	8	18.7	16.0	2.72	15.2	14.4	0.77
Devin Harris	28	29	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.11	2	-8	10	15.5	17.6	-2.15	14.0	15.0	-1.07
Austin Croshere	30	29	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-4	2	16.8	17.0	-0.28	14.6	14.8	-0.21
Anthony Johnson	36	35	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.03	-4	-2	-2	16.7	17.1	-0.48	14.5	14.8	-0.29
DeSagana Diop	48	48	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.28	2	-8	10	17.8	16.0	1.77	15.4	13.9	1.58
Erick Dampier	40	40	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.01	-9	3	-12	16.6	17.3	-0.68	14.8	14.6	0.19
Dirk Nowitzki	62	62	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	-2	-2	17.0	16.9	0.14	14.8	14.6	0.21
Jerry Stackhouse	54	51	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.22	-6	0	-6	15.5	19.0	-3.49	14.0	15.6	-1.62
Jason Terry	61	61	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.40	-1	-5	4	17.4	16.1	1.23	14.6	14.8	-0.16
Josh Howard	64	67	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.25	-9	3	-12	17.4	16.0	1.36	14.9	14.2	0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.57,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.28,0.21,0.29,0.22,0.15,0.28,0.22,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 101, GSW 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.65,0.65,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.69,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.68,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.33,0.32,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.32,0.26,0	93.0%
HOU 100, OKC 91	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.76,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.59,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.57,0.53,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.25,0.28,0.15,0.01,0	92.8%
SAS 91, MIL 84	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.43,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.43,0.48,0.24,0.19,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.36,0.22,0.1,0	92.0%