NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	91		Excitement	6.4 [543]		MVP	Matt Bonner (SAS): +34.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	84		Comeback	3.4 [469]		LVP	Ersan Ilyasova (MIL): -17.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0.35	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.24,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.35	0.12	0.22	-0.00	12	71%	0.35	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.13	0.15	0.01	15	66%	0.30	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Gary Neal	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.07	-0.00	5	83%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.02	14	53%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
DeJuan Blair	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.01	3	62%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
George Hill	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.02	-0.05	-0.02	8	44%	0.00	1	-0.05	2	0%	-0.01
Richard Jefferson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	5	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	13	31%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.16,0.08,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.06	-0.01	13	57%	0.15	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.06	-0.01	10	50%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	13	54%	0.03	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jon Brockman	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	5	64%	0.07	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.05,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	9	37%	0.03	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Chris Douglas-Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	9	28%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.10	0.02	13	41%	-0.04	2	-0.13	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.6	27.0	15.4	27.4	1.7	29.4	124.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +59.8%

MIL -22.0%

MIL -12.0%

SAS +23.7%

SAS +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIL	NBA	SAS	MIL	NBA
this game	16.0	18.4	15.5	107.1	101.2	105.7
season	15.5	16.2		109.3	100.1
opponent	15.4	15.2		100.9	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.1	16.2	14.5	17.1	16.0
MIL	18.2	19.0	19.1	17.1	18.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	58	56	1.00	-0.50	1.50	0.33	23	-16	39	14.4	19.3	-4.95	17.7	19.7	-2.04
Antonio McDyess	39	35	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.25	9	-2	11	13.8	17.8	-3.94	17.0	19.4	-2.35
Matt Bonner	54	55	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.23	8	-1	9	15.8	16.2	-0.43	18.4	18.2	0.17
Richard Jefferson	43	43	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.26	0	7	-7	18.7	13.1	5.60	19.3	17.3	2.05
George Hill	62	59	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.14	0	7	-7	15.5	17.2	-1.67	17.7	20.0	-2.25
Gary Neal	34	32	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	4	-1	14.0	17.3	-3.25	18.8	18.1	0.78
DeJuan Blair	22	21	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	5	-3	17.5	15.4	2.03	20.0	17.8	2.19
Tim Duncan	55	55	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.14	-5	12	-17	17.0	14.0	3.02	18.5	18.0	0.55
Tony Parker	58	59	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.11	-5	12	-17	17.1	13.5	3.62	18.7	17.6	1.04

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jon Brockman	3	3	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.01	2	-9	11	21.3	18.2	3.08	19.0	15.8	3.16
Andrew Bogut	62	63	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.19	4	-11	15	18.7	17.5	1.19	17.3	12.2	5.09
Corey Maggette	33	33	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.10	-3	-4	1	18.0	18.6	-0.65	14.5	16.8	-2.30
Keyon Dooling	45	48	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.24	1	-8	9	17.9	18.9	-1.08	17.5	13.9	3.60
Earl Boykins	38	37	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	1	-9	18.9	17.9	1.08	13.9	17.5	-3.60
Chris Douglas-Roberts	41	41	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.25	-2	-5	3	17.3	19.4	-2.11	15.2	16.6	-1.42
Ersan Ilyasova	57	60	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.24	-3	-4	1	18.2	18.7	-0.54	16.9	13.8	3.11
Luc Mbah a Moute	55	55	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.05	-10	3	-13	18.6	17.9	0.71	15.4	16.9	-1.46
John Salmons	60	63	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.25	-5	-2	-3	19.1	16.4	2.67	16.6	14.1	2.51
Drew Gooden	21	22	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.10	-11	4	-15	17.5	18.7	-1.19	12.2	17.3	-5.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.43,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.43,0.48,0.24,0.19,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.36,0.22,0.1,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 97, DAL 91	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.57,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.28,0.21,0.29,0.22,0.15,0.28,0.22,0.16,0	92.0%
UTA 101, GSW 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.65,0.65,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.69,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.68,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.33,0.32,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.32,0.26,0	91.3%
LAL 101, CLE 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.78,0.74,0.66,0.61,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.02,0,0	91.3%