NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	99		Excitement	5.8 [645]		MVP	Vince Carter (TOR): +14.8%
New York Knicks	88		Comeback	4.3 [124]		LVP	Latrell Sprewell (NYK): -11.8%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.09,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.14	0.06	0.05	21	65%	0.15	0	0.00	9	89%	0.02
Doug Christie	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.06	0.01	12	73%	0.18	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.05
Tracy McGrady	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	-0.03	0.11	-0.04	14	50%	0.15	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Charles Oakley	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.02	8	61%	0.07	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antonio Davis	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	62%	0.04	2	-0.06	8	75%	-0.00
John Thomas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	5	27%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Dell Curry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patrick Ewing	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.14,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.02	-0.03	17	59%	0.15	2	-0.08	7	86%	0.02
Chris Childs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.04	0.00	2	133%	0.09	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	6	100%	0.06
Larry Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.05	12	46%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Andrew Lang	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Allan Houston	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	15	48%	0.03	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	17	45%	-0.05	2	-0.07	8	87%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	2.7	26.2	17.2	27.6	2.4	34.5	139.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +28.9%

TOR +0.5%

TOR +8.8%

TOR +14.5%

NYK -2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	NYK	NBA	TOR	NYK	NBA
this game	15.9	16.3	15.2	111.2	97.8	101.7
season	15.5	16.1		101.8	100.0
opponent	15.8	14.9		98.8	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.2	15.5	15.6	17.2	15.9
NYK	16.1	17.2	16.4	15.5	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug Christie	70	72	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.11	21	-10	31	15.9	15.8	0.11	16.4	15.9	0.44
Vince Carter	79	80	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.13	20	-9	29	15.5	18.9	-3.41	16.3	15.9	0.45
Tracy McGrady	72	75	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.13	18	-7	25	15.7	16.5	-0.81	17.2	11.9	5.24
Antonio Davis	70	72	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.09	19	-8	27	15.5	17.2	-1.63	16.2	16.7	-0.46
Charles Oakley	80	81	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.14	17	-6	23	16.0	15.0	0.98	16.6	13.2	3.42
John Thomas	21	20	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.12	-8	19	-27	17.5	15.4	2.09	14.9	16.7	-1.74
Muggsy Bogues	22	21	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.01	-8	19	-27	16.3	15.7	0.53	14.6	16.8	-2.19
Kevin Willis	18	17	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.08	-12	23	-35	15.9	15.9	0.09	15.4	16.5	-1.17
Dell Curry	13	12	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	0.08	-12	23	-35	16.8	15.7	1.14	14.7	16.5	-1.79

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick Ewing	53	54	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.14	11	-22	33	16.9	15.5	1.43	16.9	14.4	2.48
Kurt Thomas	47	48	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.09	-2	-9	7	16.9	15.6	1.29	16.6	15.0	1.63
John Wallace	21	21	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.04	-3	-8	5	14.0	17.0	-3.00	16.4	15.7	0.72
Larry Johnson	80	79	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.18	-8	-3	-5	15.9	19.8	-3.94	15.6	18.2	-2.62
Andrew Lang	24	21	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.02	-15	4	-19	18.2	15.6	2.55	13.4	16.6	-3.20
Allan Houston	83	83	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.20	-11	0	-11	16.3	16.0	0.33	15.9	16.2	-0.31
Latrell Sprewell	83	82	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.16	-14	3	-17	16.2	17.4	-1.22	15.8	16.4	-0.60
Chris Childs	59	57	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.25	-13	2	-15	16.0	16.8	-0.77	15.5	16.5	-0.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.37,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.61,0.68,0.74,0.81,0.66,0.6,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.07,0.07,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 85, CHI 77	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.41,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.69,0.72,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.56,0.42,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.32,0.36,0.3,0.28,0.15,0.16,0.07,0.01,0	93.3%
SAS 87, DAL 81	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.78,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.32,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.27,0.3,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.07,0.01,0.02,0	92.5%
MIN 112, SEA 103	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.64,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.24,0.27,0.36,0.19,0.14,0.08,0.04,0.06,0,0	91.7%