NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	87		Excitement	6.4 [476]		MVP	Bubba Wells (DAL): +22.8%
Dallas Mavericks	81		Comeback	4.5 [352]		LVP	Michael Finley (DAL): -28.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monty Williams	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.03	0.06	-0.03	11	52%	0.13	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.00
Reggie Geary	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	4	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Tim Duncan	0.03	0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.07	0.06	-0.04	17	53%	0.09	3	-0.06	15	67%	-0.02
Jaren Jackson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.03	-0.02	13	46%	0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.05	0.00	10	55%	0.08	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Carl Herrera	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Vinny Del Negro	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.00	12	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chuck Person	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bubba Wells	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.12	0.09	-0.02	14	72%	0.23	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.01
Eric Riley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Anstey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	10	45%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Martin Muursepp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	1	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	14	42%	-0.07	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	0.00	11	42%	-0.03	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Khalid Reeves	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	10	29%	-0.10	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
A.C. Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.06	-0.01	5	0%	-0.09	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.28,-0.28,-0.29,-0.29	-0.29	-0.17	-0.10	0.01	15	29%	-0.20	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	1.7	25.2	16.3	22.5	2.3	26.6	115.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +67.9%

DAL -6.0%

DAL -25.3%

SAS +11.2%

SAS +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	15.3	16.0	15.6	93.5	89.0	102.5
season	15.9	15.8		100.9	98.3
opponent	15.5	15.9		104.6	97.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.6	15.4	12.4	15.3	15.3
DAL	15.7	14.0	17.1	17.4	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaren Jackson	64	64	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.11	17	-11	28	15.1	15.8	-0.73	15.5	17.3	-1.86
Monty Williams	50	49	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.35	8	-2	10	14.2	16.6	-2.36	16.7	15.2	1.54
Tim Duncan	78	76	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.29	7	-1	8	15.6	13.6	2.02	16.5	13.7	2.82
Vinny Del Negro	71	68	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.29	4	2	2	15.6	14.1	1.51	16.7	13.9	2.82
Reggie Geary	24	23	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.16	8	-2	10	13.2	16.0	-2.75	16.0	16.0	-0.03
Avery Johnson	69	68	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.17	-2	8	-10	16.0	13.2	2.75	16.0	16.0	0.03
Chuck Person	42	41	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.15	-3	9	-12	14.5	16.0	-1.48	16.5	15.6	0.89
Carl Herrera	20	20	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.05	-3	9	-12	15.1	15.3	-0.18	14.3	16.5	-2.21
Will Perdue	47	46	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.06	-6	12	-18	16.5	14.1	2.38	14.5	17.6	-3.03

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Riley	23	23	0.30	-0.80	1.11	0.04	9	-15	24	15.7	16.1	-0.44	15.4	15.2	0.19
Shawn Bradley	51	51	0.27	-0.77	1.05	-0.08	12	-18	30	15.2	17.1	-1.97	16.2	14.2	2.05
Erick Strickland	41	43	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.00	4	-10	14	14.3	17.4	-3.10	14.6	15.9	-1.32
Hubert Davis	69	71	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.24	4	-10	14	16.1	15.9	0.21	15.9	13.5	2.40
Bubba Wells	66	67	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.24	1	-7	8	15.8	16.6	-0.74	14.6	17.0	-2.43
Martin Muursepp	24	26	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.08	-10	4	-14	14.8	16.4	-1.61	13.8	15.9	-2.06
Khalid Reeves	34	34	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.13	-10	4	-14	17.6	15.1	2.50	16.8	14.4	2.37
Chris Anstey	39	41	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.28	-7	1	-8	15.5	16.4	-0.89	14.1	16.2	-2.13
A.C. Green	45	45	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.30	-14	8	-22	18.2	13.8	4.40	16.1	14.5	1.59
Michael Finley	63	64	-0.88	0.38	-1.25	-0.32	-19	13	-32	16.4	15.1	1.37	15.0	15.8	-0.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.78,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.32,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.27,0.3,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.07,0.01,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 99, NYK 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.37,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.61,0.68,0.74,0.81,0.66,0.6,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.07,0.07,0,0,0	92.5%
IND 109, MIL 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.72,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.4,0.38,0.28,0.18,0.24,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0	92.5%
SAS 107, POR 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.67,0.73,0.77,0.77,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.62,0.63,0.52,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.42,0.17,0.15,0.27,0.14,0.01,0,0,0	92.5%