NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	87		Excitement	5.2 [771]		MVP	Terry Mills (DET): +18.7%
Detroit Pistons	95		Comeback	1.4 [721]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (MIA): -15.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clar. Weatherspoon	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	79%	0.07	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Dan Majerle	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.02	-0.00	9	61%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	9	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	6	73%	0.03	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Otis Thorpe	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.03	-0.03	0.06	12	77%	0.08	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	6	29%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	8	39%	-0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	-0.16	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16	-0.13	-0.05	-0.02	23	30%	-0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.16	0.03	0.00	11	82%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	19	62%	0.14	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.01	18	55%	0.11	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	19	51%	0.05	3	-0.08	5	60%	-0.01
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	4	30%	-0.04	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	5	17%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.8	28.4	19.4	26.3	2.5	38.5	140.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +37.9%

MIA -7.5%

DET +12.0%

DET +9.3%

MIA -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	15.9	16.8	15.2	98.9	108.0	101.7
season	15.7	14.1		101.2	104.2
opponent	15.3	15.9		103.0	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.7	15.9	18.4	12.2	15.9
DET	15.0	16.8	17.6	17.8	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Otis Thorpe	16	17	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-10	12	15.2	16.1	-0.82	16.1	17.0	-0.85
Voshon Lenard	47	47	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.19	4	-12	16	14.8	17.2	-2.39	16.4	17.2	-0.82
Clar. Weatherspoon	36	35	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.16	2	-10	12	15.7	16.1	-0.43	19.3	15.2	4.12
Anthony Carter	28	28	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.14	1	-9	10	16.0	15.9	0.12	18.9	15.8	3.11
P.J. Brown	44	44	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.02	-11	3	-14	16.2	15.6	0.61	15.5	18.1	-2.61
Tim Hardaway	60	61	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.14	-9	1	-10	15.9	16.0	-0.12	15.6	19.6	-4.07
Jamal Mashburn	68	69	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.20	-8	0	-8	15.8	16.4	-0.69	16.5	17.9	-1.39
Alonzo Mourning	69	68	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.19	-11	3	-14	17.1	11.6	5.47	17.7	13.8	3.89
Dan Majerle	72	71	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.22	-10	2	-12	15.7	16.7	-0.94	16.5	18.1	-1.62

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Mills	63	62	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.24	10	-2	12	17.4	15.2	2.24	16.8	13.7	3.11
Lindsey Hunter	81	81	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.29	8	0	8	16.5	20.9	-4.40	15.3	23.0	-7.69
Jerry Stackhouse	76	76	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.20	9	-1	10	16.2	20.4	-4.18	15.8	16.7	-0.86
Christian Laettner	61	62	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.13	11	-3	14	16.8	16.8	-0.01	16.4	14.7	1.69
Grant Hill	73	73	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.27	5	3	2	17.1	15.5	1.62	16.1	15.3	0.79
Michael Curry	35	35	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.07	3	5	-2	16.1	17.3	-1.15	14.3	17.0	-2.71
Jerome Williams	31	29	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	8	-8	16.7	16.9	-0.20	14.9	16.4	-1.58
John Crotty	7	7	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.03	0	8	-8	20.9	16.5	4.40	23.0	15.3	7.69
Eric Montross	13	15	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.03	-6	14	-20	17.7	16.7	1.04	15.9	15.9	-0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.8,0.83,0.78,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.87,0.86,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 81, SEA 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.76,0.82,0.84,0.76,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.96,1,1,1	95.3%
LAC 86, DAL 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.79,0.82,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.94,0.93,0.88,0.93,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
MIA 82, TOR 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.67,0.65,0.75,0.72,0.81,0.76,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.83,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.9%