NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	82		Excitement	5.3 [726]		MVP	Anthony Carter (MIA): +10.1%
Toronto Raptors	94		Comeback	1.3 [729]		LVP	Anthony Mason (MIA): -18.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Carter	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	-0.00	-0.01	11	77%	0.14	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	10	48%	0.03	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Ricky Davis	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	6	58%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	17	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	8	41%	-0.03	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.04
Bruce Bowen	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.02	5	0%	-0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	-0.18	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.17	-0.05	-0.04	16	35%	-0.09	4	-0.09	5	60%	-0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.04	-0.03	21	52%	0.11	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.02
Chris Childs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	5	40%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	10	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Charles Oakley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	15	45%	0.00	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Vince Carter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	0.06	21	55%	0.02	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.03
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	5	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	0.00	11	27%	-0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	1.7	27.2	16.5	27.5	2.5	24.5	123.3
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +3.0%

TOR +4.1%

TOR +25.2%

TOR +9.5%

TOR +8.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	15.3	16.8	15.5	91.1	105.6	100.9
season	16.3	15.8		98.4	103.7
opponent	15.4	16.1		101.6	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.5	14.8	14.6	15.7	15.3
TOR	16.3	18.8	14.8	17.7	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	41	41	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.19	8	-20	28	15.4	15.3	0.08	16.9	16.8	0.02
A.C. Green	16	17	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.12	5	-17	22	14.8	15.5	-0.65	17.2	16.8	0.41
Ricky Davis	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-17	22	10.3	15.5	-5.18	12.0	17.0	-5.01
Eddie House	6	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-15	18	10.8	15.7	-4.83	18.4	16.7	1.72
Eddie Jones	51	47	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-9	6	15.5	15.2	0.29	17.5	16.1	1.46
Anthony Carter	57	57	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.07	-12	0	-12	15.6	14.8	0.83	18.0	14.8	3.22
Tim Hardaway	36	35	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.02	-10	-2	-8	15.4	15.3	0.12	15.9	17.5	-1.58
Bruce Bowen	48	49	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.08	-10	-2	-8	15.2	15.5	-0.38	16.4	17.4	-1.01
Dan Majerle	57	56	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.04	-12	0	-12	15.6	14.8	0.83	16.2	17.9	-1.69
Brian Grant	61	58	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.00	-15	3	-18	15.4	15.3	0.10	17.1	16.4	0.65
Anthony Mason	74	75	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.03	-19	7	-26	15.5	14.6	0.88	16.5	18.5	-1.97

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alvin Williams	59	58	0.58	-0.08	0.65	-0.07	22	-10	32	16.5	17.4	-0.89	15.0	16.0	-1.07
Vince Carter	80	83	0.55	-0.05	0.59	-0.04	20	-8	28	17.0	15.2	1.80	15.7	10.6	5.18
Charles Oakley	59	60	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.07	11	1	10	16.1	18.3	-2.15	15.7	14.7	0.97
Jerome Williams	34	33	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.10	7	5	2	17.2	16.6	0.59	14.4	15.9	-1.55
Antonio Davis	71	73	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.05	8	4	4	17.0	16.1	0.99	15.9	13.1	2.75
Morris Peterson	46	45	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	9	-6	15.4	18.4	-3.00	16.0	14.7	1.27
Chris Childs	53	54	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.13	4	8	-4	17.8	15.5	2.30	15.4	15.3	0.11
Keon Clark	20	21	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.13	-6	18	-24	17.7	16.6	1.17	15.0	15.5	-0.51
Dell Curry	23	23	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.17	-9	21	-30	17.7	16.6	1.09	12.8	16.2	-3.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.67,0.65,0.75,0.72,0.81,0.76,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.83,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 79, SAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.81,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.93,0.97,1,1,1,1	95.5%
ORL 98, IND 111	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.69,0.72,0.82,0.76,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.78,0.88,0.81,0.91,0.94,0.91,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.87,0.9,0.99,1,1,1	95.0%
MIA 87, DET 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.8,0.83,0.78,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.75,0.9,0.87,0.86,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.91,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.95,1	94.9%