NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	100		Excitement	4.8 [840]		MVP	Sam Jacobson (GSW): +8.6%
Golden State Warriors	122		Comeback	4.5 [154]		LVP	Larry Hughes (GSW): -14.7%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dana Barros	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	-0.01	-0.02	11	62%	0.08	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.00
Tony Battie	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	5	62%	-0.03	3	-0.00	19	63%	-0.03
Vitaly Potapenko	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	9	70%	0.08	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Walter McCarty	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.12	-0.01	-0.07	11	37%	-0.03	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.02
Adrian Griffin	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	7	59%	-0.01	2	-0.06	8	62%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	10	30%	-0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	15	35%	-0.08	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.05

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Jacobson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	8	83%	0.11	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.03	8	74%	0.12	3	-0.07	7	71%	0.00
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.04,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	-0.03	13	55%	0.08	1	-0.03	7	71%	0.01
Tony Farmer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.06	2	125%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vonteego Cummings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	-0.00	-0.06	6	44%	0.02	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.03	10	60%	0.02	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.02
Billy Owens	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	0.03	3	58%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.01
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	9	37%	-0.03	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.04	0.03	21	44%	-0.09	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.8	2.7	35.1	15.4	29.4	2.5	37.6	152.6
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +25.1%

GSW +12.0%

GSW +11.8%

GSW +0.4%

GSW +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	GSW	NBA	BOS	GSW	NBA
this game	13.6	13.9	15.2	95.2	116.2	101.7
season	14.7	14.7		102.4	97.2
opponent	14.7	15.1		105.8	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	12.0	13.6	15.7	13.1	13.6
GSW	15.1	15.2	13.7	11.7	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	59	59	0.09	-0.59	0.67	0.03	2	-24	26	13.2	14.0	-0.80	14.4	13.2	1.18
Danny Fortson	42	41	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.21	-13	-9	-4	13.3	13.7	-0.40	12.9	14.5	-1.61
Kenny Anderson	45	45	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-19	16	13.7	13.5	0.21	13.5	14.1	-0.61
Vitaly Potapenko	70	70	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.06	-4	-18	14	13.5	13.7	-0.13	14.8	11.9	2.91
Tony Battie	39	39	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.19	-15	-7	-8	13.7	13.5	0.23	12.5	14.6	-2.10
Dana Barros	60	60	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.23	-19	-3	-16	13.5	13.7	-0.21	14.1	13.5	0.61
Adrian Griffin	44	45	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.03	-17	-5	-12	14.4	13.0	1.44	13.6	14.0	-0.41
Antoine Walker	72	73	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.06	-18	-4	-14	13.7	13.3	0.39	14.3	12.8	1.55
Walter McCarty	59	59	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	0.01	-22	0	-22	13.6	13.5	0.05	14.5	13.1	1.41

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Caffey	78	78	0.56	-0.06	0.63	-0.08	22	0	22	14.4	12.2	2.25	13.9	12.6	1.37
Mookie Blaylock	70	70	0.51	-0.01	0.51	-0.05	19	3	16	13.9	13.9	0.00	14.0	12.7	1.24
Donyell Marshall	69	68	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.06	13	9	4	14.1	13.4	0.75	13.5	13.7	-0.20
Larry Hughes	74	76	0.42	0.07	0.35	0.01	14	8	6	13.8	14.0	-0.25	13.9	12.7	1.22
Erick Dampier	61	62	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.13	8	14	-6	14.5	13.0	1.48	14.5	12.3	2.15
Billy Owens	49	47	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.28	14	8	6	12.8	14.8	-1.95	14.1	13.1	1.05
Sam Jacobson	47	46	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.35	15	7	8	13.4	14.2	-0.74	13.8	13.4	0.45
Vonteego Cummings	40	40	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.13	5	17	-12	14.1	13.7	0.47	12.2	14.4	-2.26
Adonal Foyle	14	14	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	20	-18	11.3	14.3	-2.97	12.0	13.8	-1.81
Sam Mack	10	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	23	-24	12.8	14.0	-1.17	10.0	13.9	-3.95
Tony Farmer	13	14	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.00	-1	23	-24	14.6	13.7	0.87	9.5	14.2	-4.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.31,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.66,0.76,0.86,0.87,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 94, NYK 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.48,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.74,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
GSW 107, SEA 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.35,0.23,0.24,0.31,0.23,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.37,0.41,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.99,0.97,0.91,1	94.9%
TOR 103, CHA 107	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.28,0.2,0.18,0.25,0.19,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.27,0.22,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.77,0.86,0.82,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.7%