NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	101		Excitement	1.4 [869]		MVP	Wesley Person (CLE): +17.8%
Cleveland Cavaliers	119		Comeback	1.4 [861]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -14.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	10	55%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	9	60%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Keon Clark	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.09	-0.01	0.04	10	70%	0.04	0	0.00	7	71%	0.01
Bryant Stith	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	9	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Popeye Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	6	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	8	52%	-0.01	1	-0.00	11	91%	0.03
Cory Alexander	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	16	50%	-0.04	4	-0.09	6	50%	-0.02
Nick Van Exel	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	0.00	13	35%	-0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.15	0.04	0.02	15	75%	0.19	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.03	0.03	12	70%	0.10	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.12	-0.00	0.04	12	76%	0.11	1	-0.03	5	100%	-0.01
Pete Chilcutt	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Stack	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Lamond Murray	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	19	55%	0.05	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.03
Shawn Kemp	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	12	50%	-0.01	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.05
Mark Bryant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	7	14%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.0	27.1	15.7	29.2	1.8	27.2	127.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +45.9%

DEN -4.2%

CLE +10.8%

DEN -5.6%

CLE +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CLE	NBA	DEN	CLE	NBA
this game	13.9	14.8	15.2	100.0	119.0	101.7
season	14.8	14.1		101.5	98.0
opponent	15.3	15.0		101.5	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.9	12.6	14.6	14.5	13.9
CLE	12.3	15.1	13.6	19.1	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Popeye Jones	1	1	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.02	0	-18	18	1.0	14.0	-12.99	8.0	14.9	-6.87
George McCloud	18	18	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	-14	10	13.9	13.9	0.03	12.6	15.3	-2.67
James Posey	50	50	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.09	-7	-11	4	13.7	14.0	-0.28	16.7	12.9	3.72
Chris Gatling	37	38	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-14	10	13.6	14.0	-0.38	14.3	15.1	-0.87
Keon Clark	55	55	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.01	-6	-12	6	13.8	13.9	-0.05	14.1	15.7	-1.66
Cory Alexander	27	27	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.04	-8	-10	2	12.4	14.4	-1.98	14.1	15.0	-0.89
Nick Van Exel	74	73	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.01	-10	-8	-2	14.4	12.4	1.98	15.0	14.1	0.89
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	57	56	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.04	-10	-8	-2	13.9	13.8	0.04	14.5	15.2	-0.72
Raef LaFrentz	57	56	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.01	-13	-5	-8	14.4	13.2	1.24	15.6	13.8	1.79
Antonio McDyess	60	58	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	-5	-8	13.9	13.8	0.14	15.4	13.9	1.50
Bryant Stith	69	68	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.00	-15	-3	-12	13.8	14.0	-0.25	14.1	16.3	-2.22

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Miller	79	80	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.00	16	2	14	15.2	13.4	1.80	14.4	12.0	2.41
Wesley Person	91	92	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.04	15	3	12	14.9	13.8	1.12	13.9	13.0	0.95
Danny Ferry	63	63	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.08	16	2	14	14.5	15.3	-0.75	13.9	13.8	0.03
Lamond Murray	85	85	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.02	11	7	4	14.4	17.3	-2.98	13.4	16.2	-2.76
Mark Bryant	59	60	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.11	7	11	-4	14.4	15.3	-0.92	13.8	13.9	-0.11
Earl Boykins	56	57	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.13	14	4	10	15.9	13.4	2.44	13.2	14.7	-1.41
Shawn Kemp	40	41	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.02	9	9	0	15.7	14.2	1.46	14.0	13.8	0.19
Andrew DeClercq	22	23	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	16	-14	13.5	15.2	-1.72	15.7	13.3	2.43
Ryan Stack	2	2	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	16	-14	9.0	14.9	-5.92	11.0	13.9	-2.92
Pete Chilcutt	3	2	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.03	-2	20	-22	9.7	15.0	-5.29	6.0	14.0	-8.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.61,0.66,0.58,0.67,0.56,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.64,0.73,0.61,0.71,0.81,0.77,0.84,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 83, PHI 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.77,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
MIN 91, MIA 105	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.84,0.84,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.0%
CHI 93, LAC 120	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%