NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	91		Excitement	4.6 [904]		MVP	Jason Williams (MIA): +20.1%
Miami Heat	105		Comeback	1.3 [1060]		LVP	Troy Hudson (MIN): -13.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	17	56%	0.07	1	-0.03	7	71%	-0.00
Mark Blount	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	14	57%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Ricky Davis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	17	52%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Craig Smith	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashad McCants	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.06	-0.01	0.07	9	67%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Marko Jaric	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	3	25%	-0.02	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Troy Hudson	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.04	0.01	8	44%	-0.03	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.13	0.06	-0.01	13	77%	0.22	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.01	7	67%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	5	82%	0.13	4	-0.08	7	86%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.12	-0.03	0.08	16	74%	0.16	6	-0.15	11	55%	-0.03
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.03	14	54%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	4	46%	-0.01	1	-0.03	5	40%	-0.05
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.14	-0.01	-0.05	8	24%	-0.02	4	-0.09	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	27.0	35.8	30.6	1.6	31.7	152.6
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +55.5%

MIN -0.3%

MIA +9.4%

MIN -12.0%

MIN -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIA	NBA	MIN	MIA	NBA
this game	15.5	16.0	15.4	100.0	114.1	104.5
season	15.4	16.0		101.9	102.4
opponent	15.6	15.6		104.3	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	18.4	15.6	13.4	15.0	15.5
MIA	15.2	14.4	14.8	20.2	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashad McCants	15	15	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-14	14	16.7	15.3	1.40	19.4	15.3	4.09
Mark Madsen	6	7	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-11	8	13.5	15.6	-2.14	16.0	16.0	0.02
Mike James	24	27	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-12	10	16.5	15.1	1.37	15.3	16.3	-0.97
Craig Smith	33	33	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.02	-6	-8	2	16.6	14.8	1.79	15.5	16.3	-0.77
Randy Foye	40	41	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.03	-7	-7	0	16.3	14.8	1.48	17.1	15.0	2.11
Troy Hudson	52	51	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.03	-9	-5	-4	14.7	16.5	-1.74	15.1	17.0	-1.93
Marko Jaric	63	61	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	-3	-8	15.3	15.8	-0.47	16.2	15.6	0.60
Mark Blount	68	68	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-8	-6	-2	15.3	16.0	-0.68	16.2	15.5	0.70
Kevin Garnett	75	76	-0.39	-0.12	-0.27	-0.06	-11	-3	-8	15.3	16.4	-1.07	16.0	15.7	0.28
Ricky Davis	79	81	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.09	-13	-1	-12	15.2	17.7	-2.60	15.4	20.5	-5.08

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Williams	74	75	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.12	10	4	6	15.7	17.2	-1.55	15.5	15.4	0.07
Shaquille O'Neal	67	67	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.12	9	5	4	16.5	14.5	2.00	14.9	17.3	-2.44
Eddie Jones	76	74	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.03	12	2	10	16.1	15.4	0.65	14.9	18.2	-3.30
Antoine Walker	53	51	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.11	9	5	4	15.4	16.8	-1.46	16.4	14.3	2.13
Gary Payton	50	49	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.02	12	2	10	16.3	15.6	0.75	16.0	15.0	1.01
Udonis Haslem	59	61	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.01	9	5	4	15.4	17.1	-1.73	15.0	16.6	-1.65
James Posey	58	56	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.02	6	8	-2	17.3	13.7	3.56	15.3	15.7	-0.40
Alonzo Mourning	23	22	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	11	-8	14.0	16.7	-2.70	18.2	14.6	3.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.84,0.84,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 83, PHI 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.77,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
DAL 67, DET 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.6,0.63,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.83,0.84,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
MIA 93, ORL 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.72,0.72,0.83,0.8,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%