NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	103		Excitement	3.3 [1112]		MVP	Michael Finley (DAL): +11.2%
Dallas Mavericks	117		Comeback	1.2 [1092]		LVP	Mark Davis (GSW): -11.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Jacobson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	0.00	0.04	10	68%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Tony Farmer	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.03	2	100%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Terry Cummings	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	11	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Mookie Blaylock	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	11	46%	0.02	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	20	60%	0.05	5	-0.07	15	73%	-0.00
Sam Mack	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.05	10	41%	-0.04	2	-0.01	7	100%	0.01
Jason Caffey	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.13	-0.00	-0.06	14	30%	-0.06	2	-0.01	2	50%	0.00
Vonteego Cummings	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.14	0.00	-0.03	8	25%	-0.04	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mark Davis	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.15	-0.00	-0.03	7	19%	-0.06	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.02	0.01	19	70%	0.14	3	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.10	0.00	0.06	8	78%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	2	50%	0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Rooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	20	53%	0.05	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	7	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Bruno Sundov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	2	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cedric Ceballos	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	10	60%	0.02	3	-0.03	10	90%	0.01
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	1	50%	0.00	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Bradley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	13	47%	0.02	3	-0.05	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	1.6	28.5	15.3	33.8	1.7	31.3	134.9
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +30.1%

DAL +13.1%

DAL +2.5%

DAL +4.0%

DAL +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DAL	NBA	GSW	DAL	NBA
this game	14.6	14.2	15.2	103.0	117.0	101.7
season	14.7	14.8		97.2	104.2
opponent	14.8	14.7		104.6	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.9	15.4	16.8	10.8	14.6
DAL	14.8	14.0	12.0	15.9	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Farmer	32	31	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.35	12	-26	38	11.6	16.0	-4.47	14.6	14.0	0.60
Terry Cummings	30	32	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.18	3	-17	20	15.6	14.2	1.48	13.8	14.4	-0.57
Vonteego Cummings	53	52	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.10	-4	-10	6	15.9	13.1	2.82	12.7	15.8	-3.06
Sam Jacobson	60	62	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.11	-5	-9	4	13.9	15.7	-1.79	14.4	13.9	0.41
Sam Mack	56	57	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.02	-11	-3	-8	13.8	15.7	-1.89	15.1	13.0	2.11
Mark Davis	34	34	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.15	-17	3	-20	15.2	14.3	0.92	13.9	14.3	-0.39
Mookie Blaylock	77	76	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.10	-16	2	-18	15.5	11.6	3.88	14.1	14.4	-0.23
Jason Caffey	70	68	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.09	-17	3	-20	14.2	15.6	-1.48	14.4	13.8	0.57
Antawn Jamison	88	88	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.04	-15	1	-16	14.9	12.3	2.58	14.4	12.9	1.46

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	75	74	0.59	-0.09	0.67	-0.15	25	-11	36	14.2	14.2	-0.05	16.2	10.0	6.22
Cedric Ceballos	64	64	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.31	28	-14	42	13.7	15.1	-1.34	16.5	11.2	5.23
Dirk Nowitzki	85	86	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.14	20	-6	26	14.5	12.7	1.73	15.1	11.6	3.52
Erick Strickland	46	44	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.02	15	-1	16	13.6	14.7	-1.05	14.7	14.5	0.15
Shawn Bradley	44	44	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.08	14	0	14	13.6	14.7	-1.05	15.2	14.1	1.08
Greg Buckner	46	46	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.11	-1	15	-16	15.0	13.5	1.52	15.2	14.1	1.10
Hubert Davis	56	58	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.26	-7	21	-28	14.9	13.3	1.57	13.1	16.7	-3.65
Damon Jones	22	22	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.15	-4	18	-22	13.9	14.3	-0.37	10.0	15.9	-5.96
Sean Rooks	14	14	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	14	-14	12.2	14.5	-2.31	16.9	14.2	2.71
Bruno Sundov	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	19	-24	12.5	14.3	-1.85	7.0	15.3	-8.26
Steve Nash	40	40	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.43	-15	29	-44	15.0	13.6	1.37	11.6	16.6	-5.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.65,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.85,0.84,0.8,0.86,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 92, CHI 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.81,0.86,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.82,0.82,0.79,0.86,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.4%
GSW 99, DET 131	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.87,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
CHA 98, SAS 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.78,0.77,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.85,0.84,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%