NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	103		Excitement	7.4 [330]		MVP	Lawrence Funderburke (SAC): +11.7%
Sacramento Kings	111		Comeback	3.2 [564]		LVP	Jason Williams (SAC): -21.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Maggette	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.02	-0.02	11	82%	0.25	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Derek Strong	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	56%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Ben Wallace	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	8	60%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Anthony Parker	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Amaechi	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	11	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Pat Garrity	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	8	43%	-0.02	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.04
Chucky Atkins	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	8	31%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.12	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	15	53%	0.01	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	11	25%	-0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Chris Gatling	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.10	-0.09	0.00	5	50%	-0.11	3	-0.09	10	60%	-0.05

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lawrence Funderburke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.02	0.10	0.00	10	60%	0.14	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.03
Tyrone Corbin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.01	11	55%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrick Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.02	7	53%	0.09	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.03	-0.04	10	60%	0.04	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	0.00	10	55%	0.06	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	8	71%	0.08	5	-0.12	8	62%	-0.02
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	20	41%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.17	-0.05	-0.00	11	36%	-0.02	7	-0.20	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.8	26.8	16.5	26.5	1.7	36.2	132.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +44.4%

ORL -11.5%

SAC +11.8%

SAC +4.5%

SAC +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	SAC	NBA	ORL	SAC	NBA
this game	12.3	15.1	15.2	97.2	105.7	101.7
season	13.6	13.8		100.4	102.9
opponent	14.7	15.4		100.7	99.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.6	11.5	10.6	13.6	12.3
SAC	12.1	15.1	15.7	17.7	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Doleac	33	34	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.01	6	-14	20	10.8	12.9	-2.13	14.8	15.2	-0.39
Chucky Atkins	41	39	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-10	12	11.2	12.9	-1.65	17.3	13.7	3.58
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	44	45	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-14	20	13.0	11.8	1.20	13.8	16.0	-2.12
Anthony Parker	13	15	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.06	-3	-5	2	9.5	12.6	-3.18	13.9	15.2	-1.31
Ben Wallace	55	53	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	-4	0	13.1	11.3	1.78	13.9	16.2	-2.25
Derek Strong	23	21	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.04	-8	0	-8	11.1	12.6	-1.49	16.0	14.8	1.18
Pat Garrity	15	16	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.11	-3	-5	2	10.1	12.6	-2.55	18.7	14.4	4.36
John Amaechi	45	44	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.20	-4	-4	0	14.1	10.9	3.23	13.7	16.0	-2.37
Chris Gatling	42	43	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.21	-5	-3	-2	11.5	12.8	-1.33	15.9	14.5	1.48
Corey Maggette	59	56	-0.41	-0.10	-0.31	-0.02	-13	5	-18	11.8	12.8	-1.03	14.7	15.4	-0.66
Bo Outlaw	86	83	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.35	-5	-3	-2	12.9	9.4	3.52	15.5	13.4	2.08
Darrell Armstrong	74	76	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.29	-9	1	-10	12.6	11.4	1.26	14.7	15.9	-1.11

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrick Martin	26	26	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.26	13	-5	18	17.2	14.4	2.79	13.4	11.9	1.55
Jon Barry	47	46	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.31	11	-3	14	16.7	13.7	3.06	12.3	12.2	0.01
Scot Pollard	27	28	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.24	13	-5	18	16.6	14.5	2.02	13.2	11.9	1.26
Tyrone Corbin	46	46	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.33	7	1	6	17.3	13.3	4.04	12.1	12.4	-0.30
Lawrence Funderburke	49	49	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	5	-2	15.0	15.1	-0.15	11.8	12.6	-0.82
Corliss Williamson	44	45	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	4	0	13.7	16.0	-2.33	13.3	11.5	1.80
Peja Stojakovic	71	72	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.03	2	6	-4	14.5	16.3	-1.79	12.0	12.8	-0.75
Vlade Divac	78	78	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.02	-5	13	-18	14.5	16.6	-2.02	11.9	13.2	-1.26
Nick Anderson	58	60	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.05	-3	11	-14	13.7	16.7	-3.06	12.2	12.3	-0.01
Jason Williams	79	80	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.00	-5	13	-18	14.4	17.2	-2.79	11.9	13.4	-1.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.53,0.71,0.83,0.88,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 96, DAL 107	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.26,0.29,0.53,0.71,0.86,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.94,1,1	93.1%
CHI 97, BOS 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.4,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.96,1,1,1,1,1	92.5%
LAC 103, LAL 116	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.44,0.37,0.41,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.37,0.28,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.62,0.68,0.78,0.94,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	92.5%