NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	94		Excitement	6.4 [529]		MVP	P.J. Brown (MIA): +13.2%
Vancouver Grizzlies	83		Comeback	2.9 [672]		LVP	Othella Harrington (VAN): -21.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.06	-0.00	13	66%	0.16	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.02
Alonzo Mourning	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	12	73%	0.13	4	-0.10	13	54%	-0.07
Jamal Mashburn	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	18	47%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	4	60%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Dan Majerle	-0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.03	-0.00	7	43%	0.06	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.15	-0.02	-0.03	17	37%	-0.05	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.02

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Dickerson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.04	-0.02	18	61%	0.15	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Antoine Carr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Bryant Reeves	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	-0.03	0.01	6	75%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.06
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	20	45%	0.05	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.02
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	12	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	0.04
Grant Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	2	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.16	-0.05	-0.00	8	17%	-0.14	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	2.4	26.3	16.7	25.8	1.8	33.2	128.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +43.8%

VAN -4.5%

MIA +21.9%

VAN -14.6%

MIA +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	VAN	NBA	MIA	VAN	NBA
this game	17.6	15.9	15.2	109.3	96.5	101.7
season	15.7	15.9		101.2	99.5
opponent	15.0	15.9		105.9	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.9	19.2	15.5	19.1	17.6
VAN	15.0	19.7	15.8	13.6	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	63	63	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.20	14	-3	17	17.9	16.8	1.07	15.6	16.8	-1.24
Voshon Lenard	53	53	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.13	14	-3	17	18.5	16.1	2.35	16.2	15.5	0.75
Alonzo Mourning	66	66	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.27	8	3	5	17.4	18.2	-0.82	15.9	16.0	-0.17
Jamal Mashburn	70	70	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.25	8	3	5	17.7	16.8	0.93	15.2	19.1	-3.86
Anthony Carter	69	69	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.16	5	6	-1	17.6	17.6	-0.10	15.4	18.0	-2.59
Dan Majerle	66	65	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.03	4	7	-3	16.7	20.5	-3.82	16.9	13.0	3.86
Otis Thorpe	16	17	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.05	4	7	-3	17.8	17.5	0.30	18.0	15.4	2.59
Clar. Weatherspoon	27	27	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.10	-2	13	-15	17.2	17.7	-0.51	15.8	16.0	-0.15

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Milt Palacio	8	9	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-12	13	18.5	15.7	2.85	17.6	17.6	-0.02
Antoine Carr	13	10	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.05	-2	-9	7	16.9	15.7	1.18	23.4	16.8	6.60
Doug West	21	24	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-9	7	17.0	15.6	1.43	16.7	17.9	-1.19
Dennis Scott	27	28	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.00	-6	-5	-1	15.7	16.0	-0.37	16.4	18.1	-1.75
Grant Long	39	41	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.02	-6	-5	-1	17.5	14.6	2.87	17.3	17.8	-0.58
Bryant Reeves	49	50	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.26	2	-13	15	15.7	16.2	-0.52	16.9	18.5	-1.60
Michael Dickerson	73	72	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.11	-6	-5	-1	15.6	17.9	-2.36	17.5	18.1	-0.68
Othella Harrington	51	50	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.01	-12	1	-13	15.6	16.3	-0.72	18.5	16.2	2.27
Mike Bibby	78	77	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.21	-12	1	-13	15.7	18.5	-2.85	17.6	17.6	0.02
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	71	69	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.27	-12	1	-13	15.4	18.5	-3.09	17.6	17.5	0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.74,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.36,0.29,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.19,0.2,0.11,0.04,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 102, MIN 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.52,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.53,0.57,0.42,0.31,0.19,0.17,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.02,0	94.7%
NOK 88, POR 75	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.46,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0,0,0	93.5%
POR 96, UTA 91	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.51,0.57,0.66,0.61,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.5,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.16,0.06,0,0	93.1%