NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	105		Excitement	5.9 [622]		MVP	Karl Malone (UTA): +5.9%
Dallas Mavericks	92		Comeback	1.2 [953]		LVP	Hubert Davis (DAL): -15.2%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl Malone	0.06	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.05	0.05	-0.06	18	51%	0.07	2	-0.01	11	73%	-0.01
Bryon Russell	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.09	0.02	0.06	14	67%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	3	73%	0.04	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	3	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Olden Polynice	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	4	40%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Quincy Lewis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	9	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Howard Eisley	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.11	0.02	-0.03	11	37%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.00
John Stockton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	8	55%	0.01	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.02
Adam Keefe	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Hornacek	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	8	52%	-0.04	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cedric Ceballos	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	13	62%	0.10	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.05
Erick Strickland	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	7	50%	0.04	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Sean Rooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	27	50%	0.07	3	-0.09	6	50%	-0.02
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.06	-0.03	0.06	22	52%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	6	21%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.00	8	25%	-0.09	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.7	2.4	26.5	16.3	32.6	1.7	35.0	135.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +9.4%

UTA +9.8%

UTA +13.3%

UTA +4.6%

UTA +12.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	DAL	NBA	UTA	DAL	NBA
this game	16.1	13.1	15.2	106.1	93.9	101.7
season	16.3	14.8		104.5	104.2
opponent	14.8	15.2		104.6	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	15.2	16.8	16.2	16.4	16.1
DAL	14.1	13.2	13.8	11.3	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Karl Malone	84	83	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.12	16	-3	19	15.5	19.9	-4.47	13.2	12.3	0.88
Bryon Russell	73	72	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.03	17	-4	21	15.3	18.6	-3.30	12.3	15.2	-2.93
John Stockton	60	59	0.47	0.03	0.43	-0.06	18	-5	23	14.8	18.3	-3.49	11.7	15.1	-3.40
Greg Ostertag	28	28	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.09	8	5	3	19.7	14.7	4.98	13.9	12.8	1.09
Jeff Hornacek	69	66	0.25	0.25	-0.00	-0.10	12	1	11	14.4	20.2	-5.82	12.7	13.8	-1.13
Howard Eisley	57	57	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.19	2	11	-9	16.9	15.1	1.82	13.0	13.2	-0.24
Jacque Vaughn	17	17	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	11	-9	21.0	15.1	5.87	17.4	12.2	5.24
Quincy Lewis	41	41	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.13	-2	15	-17	17.1	15.4	1.72	13.7	12.6	1.03
Olden Polynice	45	45	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.04	0	13	-13	15.3	16.9	-1.60	14.1	12.2	1.94
Adam Keefe	21	22	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.14	-8	21	-29	20.7	14.9	5.80	12.5	13.2	-0.75

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Buckner	13	14	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.02	-1	-12	11	11.9	13.3	-1.34	14.9	16.4	-1.50
Shawn Bradley	38	38	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.20	1	-14	15	13.6	12.8	0.81	19.2	14.2	4.98
Hubert Davis	76	76	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.14	-2	-11	9	12.6	14.7	-2.06	16.7	14.3	2.34
Sean Rooks	43	43	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.10	-13	0	-13	14.0	12.3	1.68	14.3	17.6	-3.25
Erick Strickland	45	47	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.02	-12	-1	-11	12.6	13.5	-0.81	15.5	16.7	-1.16
Cedric Ceballos	89	89	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.08	-12	-1	-11	12.8	15.4	-2.60	15.9	18.0	-2.07
Michael Finley	98	99	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.12	-13	0	-13	13.1	0.0	13.08	16.1	0.0	16.14
Dirk Nowitzki	88	89	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.14	-13	0	-13	13.4	9.9	3.54	16.0	17.5	-1.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.24,0.28,0.21,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 98, LAL 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.36,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.1%
DAL 112, BOS 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.21,0.19,0.08,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.0%
DAL 105, ORL 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.35,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.19,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0	93.4%