NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	112		Excitement	5.7 [711]		MVP	Keith Van Horn (DAL): +17.7%
Boston Celtics	100		Comeback	1.6 [458]		LVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): -14.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Van Horn	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.08	0.10	-0.00	17	60%	0.20	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Josh Howard	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.08	-0.00	6	73%	0.14	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1	0.11	0.01	0.02	20	69%	0.14	3	-0.05	12	92%	0.03
Michael Finley	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.14	-0.01	0.06	11	78%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.00	9	58%	0.09	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.04	0.07	-0.02	10	52%	0.10	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Alan Henderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Marquis Daniels	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.06	-0.02	15	53%	0.12	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	12	68%	0.13	3	-0.07	7	86%	0.02
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.02	9	65%	0.09	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	4	60%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.04	11	58%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.06	-0.02	0.06	20	40%	-0.15	0	0.00	5	20%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.0	31.0	15.8	27.5	1.8	27.2	127.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +39.8%

DAL +6.6%

BOS -14.1%

DAL +22.4%

BOS -4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	BOS	NBA	DAL	BOS	NBA
this game	16.6	15.2	15.5	123.1	111.1	104.0
season	14.9	14.4		108.2	104.7
opponent	16.0	15.5		104.1	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.7	16.6	16.6	18.5	16.6
BOS	16.6	13.4	16.9	14.2	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Howard	73	74	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.07	16	-4	20	16.7	16.1	0.67	15.4	14.4	1.03
Devin Harris	32	33	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.02	15	-3	18	16.1	16.9	-0.77	17.3	14.0	3.24
Keith Van Horn	49	48	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.04	13	-1	14	16.7	16.5	0.17	14.1	16.5	-2.44
Jerry Stackhouse	33	32	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.06	11	1	10	15.6	17.2	-1.55	16.5	14.5	1.93
Shawn Bradley	51	50	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.21	5	7	-2	16.7	16.5	0.21	15.6	14.8	0.76
Dirk Nowitzki	70	69	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.03	10	2	8	16.4	17.1	-0.65	15.4	14.5	0.97
Michael Finley	68	67	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.11	5	7	-2	16.7	16.1	0.62	15.0	15.9	-0.87
Jason Terry	59	57	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.13	-3	15	-18	16.9	16.1	0.77	14.0	17.3	-3.24
Alan Henderson	12	13	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.07	-4	16	-20	16.7	16.6	0.18	16.9	14.9	1.99
Marquis Daniels	8	7	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.05	-8	20	-28	18.1	16.4	1.68	9.7	15.7	-5.97

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Jefferson	14	14	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.09	-2	-10	8	16.2	15.0	1.17	16.9	16.5	0.31
Kendrick Perkins	17	16	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-11	10	13.0	15.7	-2.74	18.1	16.3	1.86
Tony Allen	48	46	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.05	-4	-8	4	15.3	15.1	0.15	16.4	16.8	-0.32
Raef LaFrentz	49	48	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.17	0	-12	12	14.9	15.6	-0.76	16.7	16.4	0.33
Gary Payton	64	66	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.06	-4	-8	4	15.5	14.6	0.85	16.7	16.2	0.54
Antoine Walker	67	70	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.07	-6	-6	0	15.6	14.1	1.52	16.5	16.9	-0.40
Marcus Banks	26	25	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.09	-8	-4	-4	14.6	15.5	-0.85	16.2	16.7	-0.54
Paul Pierce	73	75	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.06	-11	-1	-10	15.7	13.0	2.74	16.3	18.1	-1.86
Mark Blount	31	33	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.08	-13	1	-14	15.2	15.3	-0.09	16.1	16.9	-0.74
Ricky Davis	61	62	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.16	-11	-1	-10	14.8	16.1	-1.25	16.9	16.0	0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.21,0.19,0.08,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 105, DAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.24,0.28,0.21,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0	94.0%
DAL 105, ORL 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.35,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.19,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0	93.1%
UTA 92, MEM 88	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.37,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.37,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.52,0.41,0.4,0.25,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.2,0.16,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.04,0,0	93.0%