NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	105		Excitement	6.0 [637]		MVP	Tyson Chandler (DAL): +18.6%
Orlando Magic	99		Comeback	1.4 [490]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -19.4%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyson Chandler	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.14	0.05	0.00	7	94%	0.21	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Caron Butler	0.12	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.02	14	71%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0.08	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.02	5	110%	0.13	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06	-0.00	0.04	-0.02	10	59%	0.13	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.04	-0.00	0.05	0.01	13	50%	0.09	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.05
Jason Kidd	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	12	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Marion	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	7	39%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Brendan Haywood	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	3	50%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.02
Jose Juan Barea	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.06	-0.01	14	68%	0.21	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.00	0.03	15	61%	0.10	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Earl Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.03	0.04	19	62%	0.14	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	0.00	13	38%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	-0.00	6	17%	-0.09	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.21,-0.19	-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	-0.00	11	35%	-0.09	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.6	26.2	16.4	24.5	1.7	41.3	137.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +41.6%

DAL +3.2%

DAL +1.7%

DAL +3.1%

DAL +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	ORL	NBA	DAL	ORL	NBA
this game	15.3	15.5	15.5	111.7	106.5	105.7
season	15.7	15.2		108.5	106.3
opponent	16.2	15.7		101.1	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.9	18.5	15.0	13.7	15.3
ORL	15.8	18.4	15.0	13.5	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyson Chandler	68	68	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.11	13	-7	20	15.7	14.3	1.35	15.2	16.3	-1.10
Shawn Marion	59	58	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.43	-1	7	-8	15.5	14.9	0.55	16.0	14.7	1.24
Dirk Nowitzki	76	74	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.25	4	2	2	15.2	15.7	-0.47	15.1	17.2	-2.13
Jason Kidd	69	69	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.16	7	-1	8	14.5	17.4	-2.93	14.6	18.3	-3.74
Jason Terry	57	57	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.40	-5	11	-16	15.4	15.2	0.21	15.5	15.6	-0.15
DeShawn Stevenson	36	34	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.09	11	-5	16	13.8	16.2	-2.45	14.8	15.9	-1.09
Caron Butler	52	53	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.04	9	-3	12	15.5	15.1	0.39	15.5	15.5	-0.06
Jose Juan Barea	30	29	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.17	0	6	-6	17.0	14.5	2.56	18.4	14.2	4.21
Brendan Haywood	26	25	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.21	-7	13	-20	14.3	15.7	-1.35	16.3	15.2	1.10

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Bass	31	29	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.15	10	-16	26	16.2	15.2	0.97	16.6	14.7	1.93
JJ Redick	74	72	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.18	3	-9	12	15.6	15.3	0.32	14.9	16.4	-1.46
Gilbert Arenas	32	33	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.21	3	-9	12	16.4	15.0	1.36	16.0	14.9	1.05
Earl Clark	21	21	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-3	0	18.6	14.6	4.01	18.4	14.4	4.05
Jason Richardson	77	79	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.24	-9	3	-12	14.9	18.2	-3.30	14.8	18.0	-3.23
Dwight Howard	79	81	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.26	-9	3	-12	15.2	17.5	-2.34	14.7	19.0	-4.31
Jameer Nelson	75	77	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.26	-12	6	-18	14.8	18.6	-3.77	15.0	16.6	-1.66
Hedo Turkoglu	76	78	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.23	-13	7	-20	15.6	15.1	0.56	15.4	14.7	0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.35,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.19,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 105, DAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.24,0.28,0.21,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0	93.4%
DAL 112, BOS 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.21,0.19,0.08,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.1%
DET 112, SEA 99	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.38,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.54,0.45,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.29,0.4,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.03,0.1,0.28,0.03,0,0	93.0%