NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	98		Excitement	5.7 [710]		MVP	Earl Boykins (MIL): +20.8%
Los Angeles Lakers	79		Comeback	1.4 [167]		LVP	Derek Fisher (LAL): -11.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Boykins	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.14	0.11	0.05	12	85%	0.23	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
John Salmons	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.01	14	54%	0.17	2	-0.06	9	78%	0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.05	0.01	5	67%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Chris Douglas-Roberts	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Sanders	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	9	79%	0.12	5	-0.14	1	100%	0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.02	13	57%	0.02	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Jon Brockman	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.03	0.02	9	44%	-0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	56%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Devin Ebanks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	7	53%	0.07	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	12	54%	0.05	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Luke Walton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.04	16	60%	0.06	4	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	7	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	12	44%	-0.02	3	-0.07	3	0%	-0.04
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	1.6	29.5	15.7	26.1	0.3	29.0	125.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +34.6%

MIL +8.5%

LAL -2.4%

MIL +5.1%

MIL +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	LAL	NBA	MIL	LAL	NBA
this game	17.3	16.2	15.5	115.3	90.8	105.7
season	16.2	15.9		100.1	108.8
opponent	15.5	15.4		103.1	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.8	15.9	16.8	19.2	17.3
LAL	15.0	15.4	16.7	17.8	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Salmons	70	69	0.58	-0.08	0.66	-0.15	25	-6	31	17.2	17.8	-0.57	17.7	10.5	7.15
Andrew Bogut	63	64	0.56	-0.06	0.63	-0.14	24	-5	29	17.6	16.7	0.87	17.4	12.7	4.67
Ersan Ilyasova	58	62	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.18	19	0	19	17.0	18.0	-1.04	15.8	17.1	-1.27
Luc Mbah a Moute	48	50	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.02	12	7	5	17.5	17.1	0.34	15.9	16.6	-0.73
Earl Boykins	45	43	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.00	11	8	3	18.3	16.2	2.09	17.1	15.2	1.87
Keyon Dooling	44	47	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.04	6	13	-7	16.6	18.1	-1.44	15.2	17.3	-2.13
Chris Douglas-Roberts	47	50	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.05	3	16	-13	16.9	17.8	-0.93	14.9	17.9	-2.99
Jon Brockman	28	27	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.12	0	19	-19	18.2	16.9	1.32	16.4	16.1	0.29
Larry Sanders	22	23	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.08	-5	24	-29	16.7	17.6	-0.87	12.7	17.4	-4.67

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Walton	9	11	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.00	3	-22	25	17.8	16.0	1.79	15.6	17.6	-1.94
Shannon Brown	30	32	0.03	-0.53	0.55	0.09	-2	-17	15	14.5	17.0	-2.50	18.1	16.9	1.18
Devin Ebanks	5	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-21	23	6.8	16.7	-9.94	18.3	17.3	1.04
Andrew Bynum	32	33	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	-17	15	16.3	16.1	0.22	16.2	18.1	-1.88
Metta World Peace	45	44	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.22	-14	-5	-9	15.4	17.0	-1.60	16.6	18.1	-1.48
Steve Blake	33	34	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.13	-3	-16	13	15.9	16.3	-0.42	17.9	17.0	0.87
Derek Fisher	53	49	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.04	-11	-8	-3	16.5	15.7	0.77	16.9	18.0	-1.12
Matt Barnes	37	38	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.11	-7	-12	5	18.4	14.5	3.84	18.1	16.7	1.36
Lamar Odom	70	66	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.11	-18	-1	-17	15.8	17.9	-2.13	17.8	15.6	2.19
Kobe Bryant	58	55	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	0.12	-22	3	-25	16.9	14.7	2.17	17.0	17.9	-0.93
Pau Gasol	63	60	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	0.08	-21	2	-23	16.3	15.7	0.58	17.7	16.4	1.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.36,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 100, GSW 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.59,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.46,0.3,0.22,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,0	94.4%
GSW 116, NOH 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.3%
UTA 105, DAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.24,0.28,0.21,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0	94.1%