NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	109		Excitement	9.2 [101]		MVP	Anthony Carter (MIA): +34.2%
Orlando Magic	106		Comeback	1.9 [556]		LVP	Darrell Armstrong (ORL): -30.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Carter	0.34	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.34	0.06	0.27	-0.01	9	81%	0.41	3	-0.07	8	87%	0.04
P.J. Brown	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.01	0.10	0.00	10	60%	0.15	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	0.01	6	79%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Otis Thorpe	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.07	-0.01	0.09	0.00	2	100%	0.17	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.06	-0.00	7	50%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dan Majerle	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.01	6	58%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.03	0.00	3	33%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.04,-0.18,-0.18	-0.05	-0.13	-0.00	24	55%	0.12	6	-0.30	3	67%	-0.01
Voshon Lenard	-0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.29	-0.12	-0.17	-0.00	9	43%	-0.03	4	-0.26	5	80%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.06	0.18	0.00	4	80%	0.23	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.15	0.15	-0.00	0.17	0.02	16	54%	0.17	1	-0.02	7	43%	-0.05
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,0.08,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.08	0.03	-0.05	7	36%	0.05	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.07	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.02	-0.13	0.00	13	57%	-0.07	2	-0.08	11	82%	0.03
John Amaechi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.07	-0.13	-0.00	14	39%	-0.15	1	-0.05	3	67%	-0.02
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.3	-0.30	-0.08	-0.24	-0.01	16	42%	-0.20	2	-0.10	4	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.7	38.1	16.8	28.3	1.7	41.0	155.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +101.0%

ORL -9.5%

ORL -8.2%

ORL -31.7%

ORL -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	14.5	13.3	15.2	104.8	102.9	101.7
season	15.7	13.6		101.2	100.4
opponent	15.4	15.9		99.3	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.7	13.8	15.1	15.4	14.5
ORL	12.4	13.9	13.7	13.4	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	74	73	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.33	16	-13	29	13.5	16.8	-3.26	13.3	13.3	0.01
Dan Majerle	80	79	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.39	7	-4	11	14.5	14.3	0.19	13.4	13.0	0.44
Otis Thorpe	29	30	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.48	0	3	-3	14.2	14.6	-0.33	11.8	14.0	-2.22
Voshon Lenard	61	60	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.32	1	2	-1	14.1	15.0	-0.81	13.5	13.1	0.46
P.J. Brown	51	51	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.32	0	3	-3	14.7	14.2	0.52	12.6	14.1	-1.53
Duane Causwell	12	12	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.04	4	-1	5	18.7	13.9	4.73	16.7	12.9	3.77
Mark Strickland	51	50	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.06	1	2	-1	14.4	14.5	-0.14	12.9	13.8	-0.89
Clar. Weatherspoon	52	50	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	3	-3	14.7	14.3	0.35	14.2	12.5	1.71
Alonzo Mourning	80	80	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	4	-5	13.9	16.4	-2.46	13.4	13.1	0.33
Rex Walters	30	30	-0.30	0.80	-1.11	0.08	-13	16	-29	16.8	13.5	3.26	13.3	13.3	-0.01

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pat Garrity	16	18	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.05	5	-8	13	13.2	13.4	-0.11	16.2	14.1	2.11
Corey Maggette	27	28	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.09	5	-8	13	13.4	13.3	0.09	16.4	13.8	2.62
John Amaechi	49	50	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.14	6	-9	15	13.2	13.5	-0.30	14.8	14.2	0.54
Chucky Atkins	30	32	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-3	3	15.4	12.5	2.95	16.0	13.8	2.19
Ben Wallace	44	42	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.05	-3	0	-3	13.3	13.4	-0.12	13.4	15.2	-1.88
Michael Doleac	27	29	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.02	-7	4	-11	13.1	13.4	-0.26	13.3	14.9	-1.58
Monty Williams	64	64	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.24	-2	-1	-1	13.0	13.8	-0.77	13.3	16.3	-3.04
Bo Outlaw	40	39	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	0	-3	13.7	13.1	0.67	16.4	13.3	3.13
Darrell Armstrong	73	72	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	12.5	15.4	-2.95	13.8	16.0	-2.19
Chris Gatling	69	69	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.39	-5	2	-7	13.6	12.8	0.86	15.0	13.5	1.50
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	76	77	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.32	-8	5	-13	13.3	13.4	-0.09	13.8	16.5	-2.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.43,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.18,0.19,0.28,0.14,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 110, MEM 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.48,0.41,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.41,0.12,0.19,0.07,0.06,0.15,0	93.0%
CHI 89, ATL 88	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.25,0.3,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.3,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.35,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.16,0.26,0	92.6%
HOU 91, CHA 86	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.39,0.31,0.29,0.18,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.14,0.12,0.06,0.27,0	91.6%