NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	110		Excitement	7.2 [355]		MVP	Ray Allen (BOS): +17.9%
Memphis Grizzlies	105		Comeback	1.6 [887]		LVP	Zach Randolph (MEM): -3.3%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.18	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18	0.09	0.09	0.00	13	64%	0.21	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Kevin Garnett	0.16	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.08	0.01	7	76%	0.20	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Paul Pierce	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12	0.06	0.06	0.01	11	63%	0.18	2	-0.06	8	75%	-0.03
Kendrick Perkins	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	10	62%	0.13	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Eddie House	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	7	64%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	15	47%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Tony Allen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	5	40%	0.04	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	12	67%	0.12	4	-0.10	3	67%	-0.00
Shelden Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Brian Scalabrine	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.04	0.02	17	62%	0.15	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sam Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.07	-0.02	9	55%	0.10	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.05	0.01	12	54%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Rudy Gay	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.03	0.01	17	53%	0.06	1	-0.04	9	100%	0.04
DeMarre Carroll	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.01	9	58%	0.04	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Hasheem Thabeet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	14	59%	0.15	5	-0.18	6	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.7	35.2	16.4	26.4	2.5	35.2	142.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +45.7%

MEM -4.5%

BOS +2.8%

BOS +8.3%

MEM -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MEM	NBA	BOS	MEM	NBA
this game	16.0	15.8	15.3	120.9	116.7	106.0
season	15.5	15.4		105.7	106.8
opponent	15.0	15.7		108.4	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.1	15.7	14.1	19.2	16.0
MEM	14.9	17.0	17.2	14.1	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rajon Rondo	69	68	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.35	7	-2	9	14.7	20.1	-5.40	16.0	15.4	0.61
Paul Pierce	76	77	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.37	5	0	5	16.1	15.7	0.40	16.0	14.7	1.32
Kendrick Perkins	50	52	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.14	10	-5	15	15.3	16.9	-1.60	16.9	14.3	2.56
Kevin Garnett	64	63	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.30	4	1	3	15.2	18.0	-2.84	16.3	14.6	1.70
Ray Allen	74	72	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.20	3	2	1	15.1	19.8	-4.70	15.6	16.7	-1.06
Eddie House	27	28	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	2	1	19.4	14.5	4.90	14.8	16.3	-1.50
Shelden Williams	22	22	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.07	0	5	-5	18.7	15.1	3.60	13.8	16.5	-2.65
Rasheed Wallace	44	41	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.17	-4	9	-13	17.0	15.1	1.85	15.0	16.5	-1.47
Brian Scalabrine	1	1	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.03	0	5	-5	20.0	16.0	4.04	15.0	15.8	-0.83
Tony Allen	28	26	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	8	-11	17.5	15.3	2.12	16.2	15.7	0.47

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamaal Tinsley	24	24	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.13	7	-12	19	13.1	16.8	-3.73	18.9	15.0	3.90
DeMarre Carroll	1	0	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-3	1	5.0	15.9	-10.94	0.0	16.0	-16.00
Hasheem Thabeet	35	34	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.08	0	-5	5	15.2	16.2	-0.97	17.4	15.1	2.30
Sam Young	27	26	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	-1	-3	16.0	15.7	0.25	17.0	15.6	1.35
O.J. Mayo	76	78	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.33	-1	-4	3	15.6	17.2	-1.65	16.1	15.5	0.63
Zach Randolph	77	78	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-3	1	15.7	16.6	-0.93	16.7	11.7	5.03
Rudy Gay	77	79	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.32	-3	-2	-1	16.0	14.7	1.32	15.4	20.0	-4.61
Marc Gasol	67	69	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.28	-8	3	-11	16.4	14.0	2.45	14.7	20.0	-5.34
Mike Conley	66	67	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.22	-12	7	-19	16.8	13.1	3.73	15.0	18.9	-3.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.48,0.41,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.41,0.12,0.19,0.07,0.06,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 109, ORL 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.43,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.18,0.19,0.28,0.14,0.28,0	93.0%
CHI 109, MEM 107	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.34,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.29,0.24,0.32,0.21,0.29,0.17,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.04,0	92.8%
LAL 97, IND 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.43,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.08,0.01,0.04,0	92.8%