NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	89		Excitement	8.1 [229]		MVP	Toni Kukoc (CHI): +19.1%
Atlanta Hawks	88		Comeback	2.4 [794]		LVP	Christian Laettner (ATL): -32.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Toni Kukoc	0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.19	0.11	0.08	-0.00	12	78%	0.23	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Ron Harper	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Rodman	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	5	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Jordan	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11	-0.06	-0.10	-0.05	28	49%	0.05	4	-0.16	5	60%	-0.03
Luc Longley	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.07	-0.01	14	36%	-0.12	2	-0.06	5	40%	-0.05
Scottie Pippen	-0.28	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.26,-0.26,-0.28,-0.28	-0.14	-0.15	-0.01	14	43%	-0.07	6	-0.21	2	0%	-0.06

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.05	0.00	14	63%	0.13	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.07	-0.00	7	57%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ivano Newbill	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.03	0.00	17	52%	0.08	4	-0.10	6	83%	0.04
Henry James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Corbin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	5	30%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.07	0.01	16	41%	-0.07	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.32	-0.32	0.01	-0.34	-0.01	18	54%	-0.28	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.5	24.4	16.6	27.2	2.3	37.6	133.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +40.0%

CHI +2.3%

CHI +19.4%

ATL -16.1%

CHI +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ATL	NBA	CHI	ATL	NBA
this game	14.8	17.2	15.6	98.9	97.8	104.4
season	15.5	16.4		110.5	105.3
opponent	16.0	16.1		100.3	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.0	14.8	11.9	20.4	14.8
ATL	14.8	16.5	16.9	22.0	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scottie Pippen	76	77	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.32	9	-8	17	14.1	18.7	-4.62	16.3	22.6	-6.34
Michael Jordan	83	82	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.47	3	-2	5	15.3	9.4	5.84	17.6	13.0	4.60
Dennis Rodman	51	51	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.36	3	-2	5	16.4	12.7	3.74	19.2	14.6	4.63
Toni Kukoc	65	64	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.42	-2	3	-5	15.1	14.0	1.12	16.2	19.7	-3.57
Jud Buechler	2	2	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.33	0	1	-1	0.5	15.1	-14.64	8.0	17.4	-9.40
Ron Harper	57	55	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.42	-5	6	-11	12.9	18.1	-5.23	15.9	19.2	-3.24
Luc Longley	70	70	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	-3	7	14.5	15.7	-1.21	16.9	18.2	-1.36
Jason Caffey	13	13	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.11	-6	7	-13	18.2	14.2	4.00	22.6	16.3	6.34
Steve Kerr	33	36	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	-0.10	-1	2	-3	15.6	14.4	1.26	18.3	16.5	1.81

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jon Barry	33	32	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.29	10	-11	21	19.0	16.1	2.91	18.6	12.7	5.87
Ivano Newbill	14	14	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	3	-7	18.9	16.9	1.98	16.3	14.5	1.75
Mookie Blaylock	76	78	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.42	6	-7	13	16.7	19.8	-3.08	14.6	16.1	-1.47
Dikembe Mutombo	83	82	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	5	-11	17.7	11.7	5.94	14.8	14.7	0.07
Christian Laettner	75	76	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.51	5	-6	11	16.1	22.6	-6.49	14.2	17.9	-3.69
Tyrone Corbin	61	60	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.30	-3	2	-5	16.4	18.9	-2.52	14.0	16.4	-2.43
Henry James	30	31	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.45	2	-3	5	19.3	16.1	3.12	16.3	14.1	2.21
Steven Smith	78	77	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.31	-15	14	-29	17.0	18.7	-1.71	13.8	20.9	-7.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.25,0.3,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.3,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.35,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.16,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 109, ORL 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.43,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.18,0.19,0.28,0.14,0.28,0	92.6%
DAL 92, SAS 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.74,0.69,0.71,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.08,0	91.9%
ORL 92, CHA 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.3,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.24,0.12,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.02,0	91.6%