NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	94		Excitement	5.4 [729]		MVP	Kelvin Cato (HOU): +22.0%
Houston Rockets	100		Comeback	1.6 [624]		LVP	Tony Battie (BOS): -10.1%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Calbert Cheaney	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.01	10	60%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dana Barros	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	5	40%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Anderson	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0	0.06	-0.03	0.03	15	66%	0.04	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02
Walter McCarty	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Vitaly Potapenko	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	8	44%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Eric Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07	0.01	-0.04	0.04	19	55%	-0.02	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Adrian Griffin	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	0.02	12	48%	-0.04	3	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Tony Battie	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	7	35%	-0.08	1	-0.02	6	17%	-0.10

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.15	0.04	-0.02	13	82%	0.24	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.01
Carlos Rogers	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	9	65%	0.05	1	-0.03	8	37%	-0.06
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	-0.00	-0.06	15	51%	0.02	2	-0.01	11	64%	0.02
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	7	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bryce Drew	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	11	35%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	3	14%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	8	58%	0.01	4	-0.10	10	90%	0.05
Matt Bullard	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	5	30%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.5	27.4	15.4	30.4	1.7	39.0	139.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +11.9%

HOU +29.2%

HOU +25.0%

BOS -11.8%

BOS -4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	HOU	NBA	BOS	HOU	NBA
this game	14.0	17.2	15.2	100.0	109.9	101.7
season	14.7	15.4		102.4	102.4
opponent	14.6	15.1		103.5	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	12.2	14.5	15.3	13.8	14.0
HOU	19.1	16.2	16.8	16.8	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Williams	44	44	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.24	5	-11	16	13.2	14.6	-1.35	19.3	15.3	3.97
Dana Barros	21	20	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-1	-4	13.4	14.1	-0.69	15.3	17.8	-2.46
Walter McCarty	18	16	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.01	-6	0	-6	13.8	14.0	-0.17	19.1	16.8	2.31
Tony Battie	35	34	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.01	-8	2	-10	14.4	13.7	0.64	16.3	17.8	-1.43
Vitaly Potapenko	59	57	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.31	2	-8	10	13.7	14.4	-0.64	17.8	16.3	1.43
Adrian Griffin	73	70	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.11	-7	1	-8	14.4	12.5	1.86	16.1	21.0	-4.98
Antoine Walker	76	75	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.32	0	-6	6	14.0	13.8	0.17	16.8	19.1	-2.31
Kenny Anderson	79	77	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.38	0	-6	6	14.0	14.0	-0.04	16.8	19.8	-3.03
Calbert Cheaney	65	62	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.24	-11	5	-16	14.2	13.5	0.65	18.3	15.0	3.26

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelvin Cato	63	66	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.30	14	-8	22	16.3	19.2	-2.83	13.9	14.2	-0.35
Cuttino Mobley	63	66	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.28	7	-1	8	16.8	18.1	-1.23	13.9	14.1	-0.15
Shandon Anderson	68	69	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.34	4	2	2	17.3	17.1	0.18	14.2	13.3	0.88
Steve Francis	68	71	0.41	0.10	0.31	0.23	6	0	6	17.0	17.8	-0.75	13.8	14.6	-0.79
Kenny Thomas	47	47	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.22	6	0	6	16.5	18.0	-1.51	14.1	13.8	0.36
Carlos Rogers	49	52	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	4	-2	18.0	16.3	1.73	13.8	14.2	-0.36
Bryce Drew	23	24	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.09	0	6	-6	17.8	17.0	0.75	14.4	13.8	0.60
Walt Williams	18	18	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	3	0	16.8	17.3	-0.48	14.1	13.9	0.11
Matt Bullard	33	34	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	8	-10	18.1	16.7	1.32	13.6	14.2	-0.55
Thomas Hamilton	23	23	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.05	-10	16	-26	19.4	16.5	2.91	14.3	13.9	0.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.67,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.86,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.94,0.95,1,1,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 91, POR 109	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.5,0.58,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.53,0.64,0.61,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.68,0.65,0.75,0.7,0.86,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.97,0.98,1,0.97,0.97,1,1,1	94.8%
NOP 91, MEM 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.44,0.42,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.75,0.73,0.84,0.88,0.85,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.7%
MIL 96, ATL 115	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.63,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.79,0.77,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.92,0.89,0.96,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%