NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	104		Excitement	6.9 [442]		MVP	Toby Bailey (PHX): +7.2%
Phoenix Suns	114		Comeback	2.0 [676]		LVP	Grant Hill (DET): -10.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Curry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	63%	0.03	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.04	24	55%	0.03	3	-0.05	16	87%	0.04
Christian Laettner	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.05	14	79%	0.16	6	-0.17	5	100%	0.02
Lindsey Hunter	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.01	13	58%	0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	6	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Loy Vaught	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.04	0.02	12	50%	-0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Toby Bailey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	10	55%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Oliver Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	8	74%	0.11	2	-0.06	7	71%	-0.02
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.04	0.07	-0.01	17	50%	0.10	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	10	67%	0.09	4	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Randy Livingston	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.01	8	67%	0.08	4	-0.10	5	60%	-0.01
Clifford Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.02	15	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Todd Day	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rex Chapman	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.05	-0.07	0.05	15	65%	0.03	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.5	26.3	14.7	27.2	2.7	32.0	128.3
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +38.7%

DET -7.7%

PHX +12.8%

PHX +11.9%

DET -5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	PHX	NBA	DET	PHX	NBA
this game	14.2	14.5	15.2	104.0	112.9	101.7
season	14.1	14.8		104.2	101.4
opponent	15.3	15.3		96.8	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.3	14.2	13.9	14.4	14.2
PHX	15.1	13.0	14.9	15.0	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Williams	50	52	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.06	7	-17	24	13.4	15.0	-1.56	15.0	13.9	1.08
Grant Hill	57	59	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.02	1	-11	12	14.1	14.3	-0.18	13.8	15.3	-1.50
Loy Vaught	39	40	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.02	1	-11	12	12.6	15.2	-2.64	14.1	14.7	-0.51
Michael Curry	48	47	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.03	-8	-2	-6	13.2	15.1	-1.83	14.6	14.4	0.18
Lindsey Hunter	82	83	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.17	-6	-4	-2	14.7	11.9	2.75	14.6	13.7	0.89
Terry Mills	47	45	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.13	-9	-1	-8	15.7	12.8	2.87	14.2	14.7	-0.46
Jud Buechler	16	17	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.18	-9	-1	-8	14.7	14.1	0.58	14.9	14.4	0.51
Jerry Stackhouse	97	97	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.23	-8	-2	-6	14.2	13.7	0.55	14.6	11.5	3.08
Christian Laettner	64	65	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.19	-19	9	-28	14.7	13.4	1.31	14.4	14.6	-0.16

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Oliver Miller	64	64	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.29	17	-7	24	15.2	13.2	2.00	15.2	12.4	2.79
Rex Chapman	74	73	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.29	13	-3	16	14.1	15.4	-1.25	14.5	13.3	1.29
Jason Kidd	87	86	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.25	11	-1	12	14.1	16.9	-2.79	14.8	10.3	4.55
Tom Gugliotta	81	79	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.20	3	7	-4	14.5	14.2	0.32	14.1	14.6	-0.53
Toby Bailey	38	39	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.06	4	6	-2	14.6	14.4	0.16	13.6	14.6	-0.92
Rodney Rogers	49	50	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.02	3	7	-4	13.6	15.3	-1.68	13.3	15.1	-1.88
Clifford Robinson	82	80	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.04	1	9	-8	14.3	15.0	-0.67	14.5	13.1	1.31
Todd Day	16	15	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.03	-1	11	-12	15.8	14.2	1.61	12.0	14.6	-2.59
Randy Livingston	14	14	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.04	-1	11	-12	16.9	14.1	2.79	10.3	14.8	-4.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.53,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.54,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.61,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.4,0.5,0.51,0.67,0.8,0.85,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.93,0.93,0.91,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 97, GSW 106	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.94,0.96,0.89,0.95,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.99,1	92.4%
MIN 106, CHA 113	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.67,0.52,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.6,0.52,0.62,0.51,0.67,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.85,0.93,0.95,0.97,1,1,1	92.4%
DAL 95, SAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.48,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.81,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.99,1	92.2%