NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	97		Excitement	6.1 [465]		MVP	Klay Thompson (GSW): +21.2%
Golden State Warriors	106		Comeback	2.1 [500]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (HOU): -10.9%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.03	0.03	16	67%	0.17	4	-0.08	10	90%	0.05
Chandler Parsons	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	9	55%	0.09	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Courtney Lee	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	10	50%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Luis Scola	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	6	70%	0.07	3	-0.06	8	100%	0.04
Patrick Patterson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	9	45%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jordan Hill	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Samuel Dalembert	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Chase Budinger	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	8	44%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.01	0.03	10	40%	-0.03	3	-0.08	5	60%	-0.03

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.10	0.10	-0.01	10	70%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.12	0.06	-0.03	23	60%	0.25	2	-0.05	9	67%	-0.01
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	5	83%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	4	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	5	47%	0.07	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.02
Andris Biedrins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wright	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Tyler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.01	14	48%	0.03	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	30%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.02	12	60%	0.06	6	-0.15	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.8	28.2	15.7	26.5	1.7	31.0	129.1
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +63.5%

HOU -9.5%

HOU -10.6%

GSW +7.4%

HOU -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	GSW	NBA	HOU	GSW	NBA
this game	14.7	15.0	15.6	101.0	108.2	102.8
season	15.4	15.2		103.5	103.6
opponent	15.4	15.5		106.8	103.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.6	17.5	13.6	14.2	14.7
GSW	14.1	13.2	15.8	17.1	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chandler Parsons	46	49	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.13	8	-17	25	13.8	15.5	-1.70	14.6	15.5	-0.94
Luis Scola	67	67	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.22	7	-16	23	14.4	15.3	-0.97	14.8	15.6	-0.82
Samuel Dalembert	44	45	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.11	3	-12	15	14.1	15.1	-0.98	13.9	15.9	-2.01
Jordan Hill	15	15	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.06	-9	0	-9	18.4	14.0	4.42	16.1	14.8	1.24
Kevin Martin	70	73	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.30	3	-12	15	14.0	16.4	-2.41	15.1	14.7	0.46
Goran Dragic	26	26	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.04	-6	-3	-3	15.4	14.4	1.04	15.1	15.0	0.13
Kyle Lowry	70	72	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.19	-3	-6	3	14.4	15.4	-1.04	15.0	15.1	-0.13
Chase Budinger	41	41	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.01	-17	8	-25	15.6	14.0	1.65	14.5	15.4	-0.96
Patrick Patterson	45	46	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.12	-15	6	-21	14.9	14.5	0.42	15.9	14.2	1.72
Courtney Lee	56	56	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.11	-16	7	-23	15.1	14.0	1.06	15.8	13.9	1.91

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Lee	89	87	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.27	14	-5	19	14.9	16.7	-1.81	14.5	16.1	-1.59
Ekpe Udoh	64	61	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.08	17	-8	25	14.5	15.9	-1.41	15.7	12.9	2.85
Monta Ellis	84	85	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.21	10	-1	11	14.9	15.6	-0.64	14.2	18.5	-4.28
Klay Thompson	42	40	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.18	6	3	3	16.1	14.2	1.92	14.7	14.6	0.06
Nate Robinson	27	26	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.15	3	6	-3	16.6	14.4	2.12	16.2	14.1	2.09
Stephen Curry	71	70	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.09	4	5	-1	14.4	16.6	-2.12	14.1	16.2	-2.09
Brandon Rush	44	43	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.09	9	0	9	13.9	15.9	-1.98	16.3	13.4	2.88
Chris Wright	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	9	-9	21.0	15.0	6.04	9.0	14.7	-5.73
Jeremy Tyler	8	7	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	10	-11	17.1	14.8	2.29	17.3	14.5	2.83
Dorell Wright	37	36	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.14	-7	16	-23	15.6	14.7	0.92	14.1	15.0	-0.93
Andris Biedrins	23	24	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.16	-10	19	-29	15.5	14.9	0.66	11.7	15.6	-3.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.94,0.96,0.89,0.95,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 104, BOS 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.83,0.88,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.96,0.97,0.96,1	93.9%
SEA 99, NOK 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.92,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.91,0.91,1	93.8%
OKC 78, MIL 85	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.35,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,0.98,1	93.5%