NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	99		Excitement	6.4 [530]		MVP	Ray Allen (SEA): +18.9%
New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets	104		Comeback	2.9 [756]		LVP	Earl Watson (SEA): -13.5%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19	0.13	0.04	-0.02	25	65%	0.33	5	-0.14	5	80%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.02	0.00	16	56%	0.07	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Damien Wilkins	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	83%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Robert Swift	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	5	57%	0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
Chris Wilcox	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	54%	0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Mikki Moore	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.05	0.01	4	100%	0.08	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	0.01	7	43%	-0.03	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	7	36%	-0.02	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Snyder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.00	5	83%	0.13	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Marc Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	14	61%	0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Linton Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	56%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	7	53%	0.06	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Speedy Claxton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	7	56%	0.08	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	0.01	14	52%	0.08	3	-0.08	12	92%	0.04
Desmond Mason	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	17	45%	0.03	4	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	39%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.6	33.0	15.8	24.1	2.5	38.2	141.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA -10.7%

NOK +7.4%

NOK +32.3%

NOK +19.4%

NOK +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	NOK	NBA	SEA	NOK	NBA
this game	14.1	17.0	15.6	107.6	111.8	104.4
season	15.0	16.3		108.9	101.2
opponent	15.3	15.8		104.1	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	13.7	12.9	16.8	13.5	14.1
NOK	16.9	16.4	17.5	17.3	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Swift	34	37	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.36	14	-19	33	13.6	14.4	-0.87	19.2	15.5	3.71
Mikki Moore	12	12	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-1	-3	13.9	14.1	-0.22	15.7	17.2	-1.45
Damien Wilkins	19	19	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-1	-3	11.6	14.8	-3.12	17.5	16.9	0.58
Luke Ridnour	53	55	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-3	1	14.6	13.4	1.17	17.0	17.1	-0.07
Johan Petro	39	36	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.12	-6	1	-7	15.1	13.4	1.77	16.4	17.4	-1.06
Nick Collison	36	36	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-3	1	12.9	14.9	-1.96	17.2	16.9	0.30
Earl Watson	46	45	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.18	-5	0	-5	13.2	15.0	-1.87	16.8	17.2	-0.49
Chris Wilcox	62	63	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.01	-12	7	-19	14.7	12.9	1.74	16.3	18.5	-2.15
Rashard Lewis	73	74	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.35	-1	-4	3	14.8	11.6	3.12	16.9	17.5	-0.58
Ray Allen	86	88	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.40	-3	-2	-1	14.2	13.2	1.01	17.1	15.8	1.28

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	52	49	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.32	4	1	3	17.3	16.7	0.59	14.6	13.6	0.95
Rasual Butler	62	59	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.16	9	-4	13	16.8	17.5	-0.66	13.8	14.6	-0.73
Marc Jackson	76	76	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.32	3	2	1	17.0	17.2	-0.27	14.6	11.6	3.08
Speedy Claxton	49	52	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.26	3	2	1	17.2	16.8	0.32	13.6	14.8	-1.27
Chris Paul	69	67	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.29	-1	6	-7	17.2	16.5	0.63	14.5	13.0	1.52
Kirk Snyder	26	26	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.08	6	-1	7	16.3	17.3	-0.98	12.6	14.7	-2.08
Desmond Mason	65	62	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.33	-3	8	-11	16.9	17.3	-0.44	15.1	12.1	2.98
Brandon Bass	46	48	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.02	6	-1	7	16.3	17.7	-1.44	13.3	15.0	-1.66
Linton Johnson	10	11	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	4	-3	18.5	16.8	1.67	12.6	14.3	-1.67
Aaron Williams	10	10	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.02	-3	8	-11	20.1	16.6	3.46	12.8	14.3	-1.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.92,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.91,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 91, UTA 95	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.27,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.42,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.97,0.94,0.9,0.84,0.85,1	94.3%
CLE 109, DAL 126	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.39,0.38,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.48,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.69,0.63,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
SAC 93, ORL 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.64,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.85,0.88,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.0%