NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	93		Excitement	5.0 [802]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): +10.0%
Orlando Magic	112		Comeback	2.1 [849]		LVP	Beno Udrih (SAC): -17.1%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0.07	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.01	0.01	13	68%	0.16	3	-0.09	5	60%	-0.02
Brad Miller	0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.03	-0.02	14	55%	0.06	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Francisco Garcia	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Quincy Douby	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.01	7	50%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.07	-0.04	0.05	15	64%	0.02	3	-0.04	6	83%	0.02
John Salmons	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	3	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Shelden Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	11	39%	-0.01	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Mikki Moore	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	18%	-0.03	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Beno Udrih	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.14	-0.03	-0.00	6	17%	-0.08	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.01	12	62%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.03	0.03	10	70%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	0.01	0.04	8	87%	0.12	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	9	57%	0.11	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.11	-0.02	0.06	13	70%	0.13	3	-0.09	11	55%	-0.03
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	12%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.07	-0.00	0.08	9	61%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.02	11	23%	-0.10	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.7	29.7	16.6	26.4	2.4	32.5	136.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +36.5%

ORL +2.6%

SAC -3.9%

ORL +14.1%

ORL +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	ORL	NBA	SAC	ORL	NBA
this game	15.2	15.1	15.4	97.9	117.9	105.7
season	14.9	15.1		105.6	109.9
opponent	15.6	15.0		104.6	108.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.1	15.8	16.0	15.1	15.2
ORL	14.2	17.0	14.6	14.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shelden Williams	17	17	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-20	21	13.5	15.6	-2.13	12.2	15.7	-3.55
Francisco Garcia	40	39	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.13	-10	-9	-1	15.0	15.4	-0.43	15.6	14.8	0.80
Spencer Hawes	37	37	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.07	-8	-11	3	14.4	15.7	-1.34	15.2	15.1	0.11
Quincy Douby	29	29	-0.20	-0.29	0.09	0.09	-10	-9	-1	14.3	15.6	-1.36	13.9	15.6	-1.72
Mikki Moore	49	48	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.08	-5	-14	9	16.0	14.4	1.65	15.5	14.7	0.82
Beno Udrih	71	71	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.05	-8	-11	3	15.3	14.9	0.41	15.5	14.0	1.52
John Salmons	51	52	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.11	-6	-13	7	14.7	15.8	-1.03	14.5	15.9	-1.40
Kevin Martin	60	61	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	-7	-5	15.6	14.5	1.07	15.1	15.1	0.01
Metta World Peace	59	60	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.05	-16	-3	-13	15.4	14.9	0.53	15.7	14.0	1.73
Brad Miller	62	61	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.19	-21	2	-23	15.9	14.0	1.82	15.3	14.8	0.51

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashard Lewis	80	78	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.08	20	-1	21	15.4	13.5	1.93	15.4	14.6	0.77
Keyon Dooling	38	39	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.12	16	3	13	16.3	14.3	1.95	15.3	15.1	0.19
Dwight Howard	68	68	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	11	8	3	14.4	16.8	-2.35	15.5	14.5	1.03
Keith Bogans	49	50	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.20	17	2	15	15.9	14.3	1.57	15.1	15.3	-0.21
Hedo Turkoglu	61	63	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.02	10	9	1	15.5	14.4	1.16	15.7	14.2	1.51
Brian Cook	33	34	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.12	12	7	5	15.3	15.0	0.37	15.4	15.1	0.34
Maurice Evans	48	46	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	17	-15	14.1	16.1	-2.00	15.2	15.2	-0.01
Adonal Foyle	27	27	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.04	8	11	-3	16.8	14.4	2.35	14.5	15.5	-1.03
Jameer Nelson	57	56	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	16	-13	14.3	16.3	-1.95	15.1	15.3	-0.19
Pat Garrity	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	21	-23	11.7	15.4	-3.65	12.0	15.5	-3.48
JJ Redick	7	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	21	-23	11.7	15.4	-3.65	12.0	15.5	-3.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.64,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.85,0.88,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 105, NYK 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.79,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.94,0.88,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.9%
HOU 74, IND 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.77,0.78,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.82,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
SAS 64, UTA 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.64,0.65,0.75,0.72,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%