NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	86		Excitement	5.2 [763]		MVP	Ron Mercer (DEN): +8.7%
Denver Nuggets	95		Comeback	3.7 [751]		LVP	Hersey Hawkins (CHI): -12.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kornel David	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.01	-0.04	12	57%	0.07	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Chris Anstey	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	16	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Lari Ketner	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Benjamin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Randy Brown	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.03	-0.02	13	54%	0.06	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Dedric Willoughby	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	3	50%	-0.04	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Metta World Peace	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	13	30%	-0.10	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Elton Brand	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.04	0.02	19	42%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Hersey Hawkins	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.01	6	7%	-0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.06	-0.02	16	53%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.05
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	4	83%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	8	64%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.02	-0.05	9	55%	0.08	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Chris Herren	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01	1	0.01	0	0%	0.00
Roy Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	0	75%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.03	0.04	10	66%	-0.00	1	-0.04	12	75%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	11	50%	0.02	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	5	30%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	3.4	26.4	14.6	25.1	1.5	29.5	125.0
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +39.9%

DEN +9.4%

CHI -1.6%

DEN +1.5%

DEN +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DEN	NBA	CHI	DEN	NBA
this game	16.9	15.5	15.2	96.6	106.7	101.7
season	16.5	14.8		91.8	101.5
opponent	15.0	14.9		103.7	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.0	16.1	17.6	16.7	16.9
DEN	15.0	17.4	13.7	16.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Ruffin	8	8	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.03	3	-12	15	13.5	17.2	-3.70	16.6	15.4	1.24
Metta World Peace	47	49	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.18	3	-12	15	17.6	16.0	1.55	16.4	14.4	1.99
Chris Anstey	44	45	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.19	3	-12	15	15.5	18.2	-2.70	16.5	14.4	2.10
Corey Benjamin	5	6	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.01	-4	-5	1	15.2	17.0	-1.76	12.0	15.7	-3.75
Dedric Willoughby	39	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-6	3	15.9	17.6	-1.68	14.9	15.9	-0.95
Lari Ketner	9	7	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.03	-3	-6	3	18.6	16.7	1.88	14.6	15.6	-1.00
Will Perdue	23	22	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.00	-9	0	-9	19.9	15.8	4.11	14.2	15.9	-1.74
Kornel David	56	55	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.07	-12	3	-15	16.2	18.0	-1.80	15.2	16.0	-0.77
Elton Brand	72	73	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.32	-4	-5	1	17.2	15.2	2.01	15.4	15.7	-0.31
Randy Brown	78	80	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.26	-7	-2	-5	16.9	16.6	0.26	15.5	15.7	-0.19
Hersey Hawkins	64	62	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.17	-12	3	-15	17.2	16.1	1.09	15.5	15.5	-0.03

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ron Mercer	74	75	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.07	18	-9	27	15.0	18.1	-3.09	17.0	16.2	0.77
James Posey	63	61	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.15	8	1	7	15.1	16.5	-1.47	17.1	16.4	0.64
Raef LaFrentz	56	57	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.05	10	-1	11	15.1	16.2	-1.04	17.2	16.3	0.86
Nick Van Exel	64	63	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.12	6	3	3	15.3	15.9	-0.54	17.1	16.2	0.95
Roy Rogers	23	21	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.15	4	5	-1	16.3	15.2	1.09	16.8	16.9	-0.07
George McCloud	19	20	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.19	2	7	-5	15.0	15.6	-0.63	18.1	16.5	1.59
Keon Clark	42	40	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.26	-1	10	-11	15.6	15.4	0.24	16.5	17.1	-0.57
Chris Herren	25	26	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	6	-3	15.9	15.3	0.54	16.2	17.1	-0.95
Antonio McDyess	57	60	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.02	5	4	1	15.5	15.6	-0.11	16.8	17.0	-0.20
Bryant Stith	10	10	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	12	-15	19.7	15.0	4.74	16.5	16.9	-0.41
Ryan Bowen	12	12	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.05	-7	16	-23	18.2	15.1	3.19	13.3	17.4	-4.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.26,0.29,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.33,0.45,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.67,0.71,0.59,0.59,0.76,0.71,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.97,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 88, MEM 106	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.3,0.38,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.65,0.59,0.66,0.74,0.68,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.86,0.95,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.1%
CLE 89, BOS 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.26,0.32,0.32,0.2,0.22,0.28,0.33,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.69,0.77,0.84,0.9,0.85,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1	94.0%
NJN 102, IND 115	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.3,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.72,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%