NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	91		Excitement	7.5 [319]		MVP	Derek Fisher (LAL): +8.8%
Phoenix Suns	82		Comeback	1.4 [460]		LVP	Ron Harper (LAL): -20.5%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.08	0.01	11	60%	0.11	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.00
Brian Shaw	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	6	43%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Travis Knight	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Glen Rice	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	0.00	16	52%	0.01	2	-0.04	12	92%	0.12
Rick Fox	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Celestand	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	27	50%	-0.04	1	-0.04	14	43%	-0.12
A.C. Green	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	2	25%	-0.06	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Ron Harper	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.13	-0.09	-0.02	9	27%	-0.11	2	-0.09	4	50%	-0.01

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Oliver Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	20	48%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.05
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	10	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.05
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.06	-0.02	11	46%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Marion	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	8	33%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.06,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	15	37%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Rex Chapman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	5	33%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Luc Longley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.04	0.01	10	36%	-0.08	1	-0.06	5	60%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	1.7	28.3	15.6	27.0	1.8	39.0	140.1
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +6.1%

LAL +27.0%

LAL +28.8%

PHX -16.1%

LAL +4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	PHX	NBA	LAL	PHX	NBA
this game	17.4	14.3	15.2	100.0	90.1	101.7
season	15.3	14.8		105.6	101.4
opponent	15.3	15.1		96.8	98.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	15.5	16.8	20.2	17.4	17.4
PHX	14.5	13.2	15.8	13.9	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	78	79	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.24	11	-2	13	17.9	14.5	3.42	14.7	11.6	3.07
Derek Fisher	63	62	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.13	13	-4	17	17.7	16.6	1.14	14.1	14.6	-0.49
A.C. Green	67	65	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.22	9	0	9	17.1	18.3	-1.22	14.6	13.3	1.32
Brian Shaw	35	34	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.07	9	0	9	17.8	17.1	0.70	15.4	13.6	1.80
Glen Rice	68	70	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.17	5	4	1	17.7	16.5	1.23	13.8	15.7	-1.84
Ron Harper	79	80	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.18	2	7	-5	16.9	20.7	-3.77	13.8	17.7	-3.95
Rick Fox	27	26	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.02	7	2	5	16.1	17.9	-1.77	14.5	14.2	0.29
Robert Horry	20	21	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.11	-3	12	-15	19.1	16.9	2.18	14.2	14.3	-0.02
Travis Knight	10	9	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.01	-2	11	-13	15.7	17.6	-1.90	13.1	14.4	-1.27
John Celestand	8	9	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.09	-6	15	-21	15.0	17.6	-2.63	12.9	14.4	-1.51

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Marion	43	42	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-9	9	14.1	14.4	-0.35	18.8	16.2	2.58
Tom Gugliotta	29	30	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.06	-3	-6	3	14.8	14.0	0.79	17.4	17.4	0.01
Rex Chapman	35	36	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-5	1	13.8	14.5	-0.74	16.0	18.3	-2.26
Oliver Miller	16	17	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.07	-9	0	-9	15.4	14.0	1.44	18.4	17.2	1.25
Luc Longley	71	70	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.26	-2	-7	5	14.3	14.1	0.20	17.7	16.4	1.26
Anfernee Hardaway	81	80	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	-5	1	13.9	17.4	-3.54	17.0	20.0	-2.96
Clifford Robinson	49	49	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.20	-6	-3	-3	14.2	14.3	-0.11	17.2	17.6	-0.41
Rodney Rogers	51	51	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.20	-8	-1	-7	14.7	13.7	1.03	16.8	18.1	-1.35
Jason Kidd	80	80	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.21	-9	0	-9	14.2	14.5	-0.33	17.7	15.5	2.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.5,0.37,0.43,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.25,0.38,0.43,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.24,0.33,0.19,0.23,0.24,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 110, NYK 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.37,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.29,0.28,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.08,0.16,0.09,0	92.8%
TOR 94, MIA 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.33,0.28,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.17,0.39,0.1,0.22,0.16,0	92.7%
CHI 106, SAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.3,0.39,0.38,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.41,0.25,0.42,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.21,0.05,0.02,0	92.6%