NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	106		Excitement	7.6 [317]		MVP	Chris Duhon (CHI): +23.9%
San Antonio Spurs	99		Comeback	1.6 [375]		LVP	Rasho Nesterovic (SAS): -10.4%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Duhon	0.24	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.12	0.14	0.02	11	75%	0.27	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.10	0.13	-0.01	9	68%	0.23	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.00	15	52%	0.13	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Darius Songaila	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	6	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Ben Gordon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	19	47%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Eddie Basden	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Sweetney	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	6	38%	0.07	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	75%	0.11	4	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01
Kirk Hinrich	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	13	36%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.07	-0.01	11	52%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.01	10	59%	0.13	1	-0.01	7	57%	-0.02
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.00	-0.00	10	75%	0.14	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	5	73%	0.08	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.11,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.01	14	63%	0.18	3	-0.15	10	80%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	5	42%	0.02	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	5	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.05	0.03	10	54%	-0.01	3	-0.09	4	50%	-0.03
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	7	29%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	25.4	17.4	29.0	1.8	36.3	136.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +45.8%

SAS -3.8%

CHI +7.4%

CHI +2.2%

SAS -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	SAS	NBA	CHI	SAS	NBA
this game	14.0	15.7	15.6	109.3	102.1	104.4
season	14.4	16.3		102.6	106.0
opponent	15.6	16.1		99.4	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.7	16.5	13.0	13.2	14.0
SAS	16.9	15.5	14.2	16.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	67	65	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.24	15	-8	23	13.7	14.8	-1.16	15.8	15.3	0.52
Kirk Hinrich	89	89	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.17	12	-5	17	14.1	13.1	0.99	15.4	18.6	-3.23
Ben Gordon	67	67	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.20	7	0	7	14.0	14.1	-0.15	15.7	15.6	0.13
Tyson Chandler	57	55	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.21	6	1	5	14.2	13.8	0.44	16.9	14.0	2.89
Chris Duhon	75	76	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.38	0	7	-7	14.4	12.7	1.74	15.6	15.9	-0.25
Othella Harrington	21	21	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.03	4	3	1	12.4	14.5	-2.05	16.1	15.5	0.62
Michael Sweetney	22	25	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	3	1	13.4	14.2	-0.86	17.8	14.9	2.94
Eddie Basden	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	10	-13	4.0	14.1	-10.14	5.0	15.8	-10.77
Darius Songaila	24	25	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.00	-2	9	-11	15.7	13.5	2.28	15.0	15.9	-0.94
Andres Nocioni	62	61	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.13	-8	15	-23	14.0	14.1	-0.13	14.2	18.2	-4.03

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Van Exel	40	40	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.06	5	-12	17	15.8	15.5	0.32	15.1	13.3	1.82
Michael Finley	61	60	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.10	3	-10	13	15.3	16.3	-0.98	13.6	14.8	-1.22
Rasho Nesterovic	38	37	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.12	2	-9	11	15.7	15.7	-0.00	14.7	13.6	1.09
Brent Barry	30	30	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.05	-7	0	-7	16.1	15.4	0.69	13.0	14.5	-1.44
Nazr Mohammed	18	19	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.03	-7	0	-7	18.3	15.1	3.28	13.8	14.1	-0.30
Tim Duncan	76	75	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.27	0	-7	7	15.5	16.2	-0.68	13.8	14.9	-1.08
Tony Parker	72	70	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.20	-5	-2	-3	14.8	18.0	-3.15	13.7	14.9	-1.19
Bruce Bowen	54	52	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.29	-6	-1	-5	16.5	14.7	1.81	14.9	13.0	1.96
Manu Ginobili	64	66	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.30	-7	0	-7	15.8	15.3	0.49	14.0	14.1	-0.14
Robert Horry	32	36	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.21	-13	6	-19	14.7	16.2	-1.50	13.8	14.2	-0.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.3,0.39,0.38,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.41,0.25,0.42,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.21,0.05,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 98, PHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.37,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.52,0.47,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.34,0.28,0.19,0.07,0.06,0.1,0	93.2%
UTA 112, PHX 104	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.56,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.26,0.19,0.14,0.25,0.15,0.06,0.01,0	92.7%
LAL 91, PHX 82	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.5,0.37,0.43,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.25,0.38,0.43,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.24,0.33,0.19,0.23,0.24,0.01,0	92.6%