NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	110		Excitement	8.6 [176]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (NYK): +53.7%
New York Knicks	108		Comeback	1.6 [677]		LVP	J.R. Smith (NYK): -24.4%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.36	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.36	0.03	0.31	-0.02	13	52%	0.39	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Jose Calderon	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.27,0.27	0.20	0.08	0.01	9	95%	0.27	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Vince Carter	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.12,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.16	0.16	0.01	0.01	17	68%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandan Wright	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.06	0.01	8	75%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	3	83%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jae Crowder	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	0.00	5	43%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Shawn Marion	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.01,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	0.01	22	48%	0.06	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Devin Harris	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	25%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.2,0.3,0.28,0.54	0.54	0.21	0.32	-0.01	29	66%	0.62	4	-0.08	9	100%	0.06
Pablo Prigioni	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.07	-0.01	5	80%	0.14	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.01	5	86%	0.15	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.03
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	69%	0.10	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Cole Aldrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.03	4	100%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Tyler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.09	-0.00	10	50%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.24	-0.24	-0.07	-0.17	0.00	16	47%	-0.13	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	32.9	15.0	27.2	3.4	34.6	139.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +26.6%

NYK -9.9%

NYK -19.7%

DAL +49.6%

DAL +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	NYK	NBA	DAL	NYK	NBA
this game	15.8	15.9	15.1	120.9	118.7	105.2
season	15.3	16.0		109.0	106.4
opponent	15.4	15.0		107.6	107.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	12.4	16.8	17.4	17.1	15.8
NYK	15.3	14.5	17.7	16.4	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	45	45	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.45	6	-4	10	16.4	15.1	1.31	17.3	14.5	2.86
Monta Ellis	75	77	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.41	6	-4	10	16.2	13.8	2.36	16.2	14.2	1.98
Jose Calderon	62	63	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.36	2	0	2	16.2	14.9	1.32	16.0	15.5	0.51
Samuel Dalembert	44	43	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.18	7	-5	12	15.8	15.7	0.12	16.3	15.5	0.74
Dirk Nowitzki	64	65	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.31	2	0	2	15.4	16.5	-1.08	14.9	18.3	-3.44
Devin Harris	29	28	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.08	0	2	-2	14.9	16.2	-1.32	15.5	16.0	-0.51
Brandan Wright	39	40	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.33	-9	11	-20	16.1	15.5	0.56	15.2	16.4	-1.14
DeJuan Blair	5	5	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.04	3	-1	4	9.4	16.1	-6.73	17.2	15.8	1.39
Shawn Marion	69	67	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.07	-2	4	-6	16.1	14.6	1.48	16.2	15.1	1.04
Wayne Ellington	22	22	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.06	-2	4	-6	14.3	16.2	-1.96	14.0	16.5	-2.43
Jae Crowder	1	0	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.02	-3	5	-8	0.0	15.9	-15.93	0.0	15.9	-15.89

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cole Aldrich	15	15	0.27	-0.77	1.03	-0.08	12	-14	26	15.4	16.0	-0.59	17.5	15.4	2.13
Tim Hardaway Jr.	57	57	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.30	8	-10	18	15.5	16.6	-1.16	16.2	14.9	1.30
Jeremy Tyler	10	11	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.05	-5	3	-8	14.5	16.1	-1.56	13.3	16.1	-2.83
Amar'e Stoudemire	40	41	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.04	-8	6	-14	16.0	15.8	0.15	14.7	16.6	-1.87
J.R. Smith	65	65	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.44	4	-6	10	15.9	15.9	0.01	16.4	14.2	2.14
Carmelo Anthony	79	78	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.41	2	-4	6	16.1	14.7	1.41	15.8	15.5	0.26
Raymond Felton	64	63	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.20	-7	5	-12	15.8	16.1	-0.26	15.5	16.4	-0.92
Pablo Prigioni	56	56	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.39	-2	0	-2	16.2	15.4	0.75	15.4	16.3	-0.86
Tyson Chandler	69	69	-0.89	0.39	-1.28	-0.48	-14	12	-26	16.1	15.1	0.99	15.9	15.4	0.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.37,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.29,0.28,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.08,0.16,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 67, MIA 65	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.29,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.15,0	92.8%
MEM 97, ATL 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.29,0.32,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.34,0.33,0.47,0.54,0.38,0.29,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.16,0.1,0.16,0	92.8%
LAL 91, PHX 82	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.5,0.37,0.43,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.25,0.38,0.43,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.24,0.33,0.19,0.23,0.24,0.01,0	92.8%