NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	78		Excitement	6.5 [289]		MVP	Mario Elie (SAS): +10.4%
San Antonio Spurs	84		Comeback	4.6 [159]		LVP	Greg Ostertag (UTA): -18.1%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shandon Anderson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.01	8	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thurl Bailey	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Todd Fuller	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Howard Eisley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	58%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	6	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Foster	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Karl Malone	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	17	56%	0.01	3	-0.08	9	89%	0.02
Jeff Hornacek	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.00	-0.00	11	39%	0.02	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.05
John Stockton	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	6	41%	-0.06	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.04
Greg Ostertag	-0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.07	-0.11	0.01	8	39%	-0.08	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Elie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.08	-0.00	7	71%	0.16	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.03
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	0.05	-0.01	7	50%	0.09	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.01
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	11	46%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	29%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.11,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.02	0.00	21	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	10	60%	-0.05
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.01	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.05
Sean Elliott	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	6	50%	-0.08	2	-0.08	16	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	2.7	30.1	18.7	34.1	2.5	37.7	153.0
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +18.6%

SAS +5.4%

SAS +18.8%

UTA -4.0%

SAS +11.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	SAS	NBA	UTA	SAS	NBA
this game	17.4	16.5	15.8	92.9	97.7	99.6
season	16.4	15.9		102.6	101.1
opponent	15.9	16.0		92.7	96.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	16.5	17.1	17.6	18.5	17.4
SAS	16.3	16.3	15.1	18.4	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Howard Eisley	34	34	0.22	-0.72	0.93	-0.08	10	-16	26	13.6	20.0	-6.33	17.2	16.0	1.16
Greg Foster	18	18	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.07	5	-11	16	18.2	17.2	0.95	17.3	16.2	1.08
Thurl Bailey	18	20	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.06	4	-10	14	13.6	18.5	-4.84	14.7	17.0	-2.25
Todd Fuller	12	12	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.05	-4	-2	-2	12.6	18.2	-5.64	15.7	16.6	-0.84
Shandon Anderson	39	40	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.15	-1	-5	4	17.7	17.2	0.51	17.0	16.0	0.98
Bryon Russell	69	70	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.21	-4	-2	-2	16.8	20.1	-3.23	16.8	15.1	1.74
Greg Ostertag	51	51	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.22	-8	2	-10	18.6	15.5	3.08	17.0	15.7	1.24
Jeff Hornacek	59	61	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.29	-7	1	-8	18.1	15.9	2.19	16.0	17.7	-1.70
Karl Malone	69	71	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.25	-9	3	-12	18.2	14.0	4.16	16.5	16.3	0.17
John Stockton	51	53	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.25	-16	10	-26	19.7	13.8	5.93	15.8	17.6	-1.83

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Avery Johnson	75	72	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.25	14	-8	22	16.1	19.2	-3.10	17.6	16.1	1.56
David Robinson	66	63	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.28	11	-5	16	16.2	17.5	-1.40	18.3	14.8	3.48
Tim Duncan	75	72	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.27	11	-5	16	16.3	17.5	-1.23	17.7	15.7	1.94
Jaren Jackson	28	28	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.09	13	-7	20	15.6	16.9	-1.29	16.5	17.9	-1.43
Mario Elie	54	53	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.25	4	2	2	16.9	15.8	1.01	19.9	13.2	6.69
Sean Elliott	75	72	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.19	6	0	6	15.9	20.5	-4.56	16.4	23.3	-6.90
Will Perdue	6	6	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.05	-5	11	-16	21.8	16.1	5.76	17.8	17.4	0.45
Malik Rose	25	27	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	11	-16	16.5	16.5	0.06	14.6	18.8	-4.22
Antonio Daniels	11	12	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.07	-8	14	-22	19.2	16.1	3.10	16.1	17.6	-1.56
Steve Kerr	15	15	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.12	-11	17	-28	19.7	15.8	3.86	15.2	17.9	-2.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.24,0.28,0.27,0.36,0.37,0.29,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.3,0.18,0.34,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.81,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.94,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 78, TOR 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.35,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.58,0.68,0.8,0.81,0.93,0.94,0.96,1,1,1	93.5%
MIN 103, SAC 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.62,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.27,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.46,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.59,0.76,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.98,0.95,1	92.8%
TOR 104, MIA 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.24,0.26,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.73,0.93,0.84,0.91,0.96,1	92.2%