NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	94		Excitement	6.7 [274]		MVP	Donyell Marshall (GSW): +28.5%
Dallas Mavericks	105		Comeback	2.2 [478]		LVP	Shawn Bradley (DAL): -14.9%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0.29	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.20	0.10	0.02	23	72%	0.32	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Antawn Jamison	0.09	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.02	16	69%	0.14	2	-0.05	3	67%	0.01
Muggsy Bogues	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	7	44%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Adonal Foyle	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	1	0%	-0.04	1	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
John Starks	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	17	38%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mills	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	6	33%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terry Cummings	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	11	26%	-0.09	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.24,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.10	0.13	-0.00	12	75%	0.27	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.05
Michael Finley	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.03	0.05	17	72%	0.17	3	-0.09	9	100%	0.03
Gary Trent	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	10	65%	0.05	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.02
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hot Rod Williams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	8	50%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	50%	0.00
Chris Anstey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	13	50%	0.00	3	-0.11	4	75%	0.01
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	12	25%	-0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.4	25.4	21.4	20.6	1.7	31.4	127.6
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +15.0%

DAL +25.4%

DAL +9.5%

DAL +0.7%

GSW -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DAL	NBA	GSW	DAL	NBA
this game	16.4	15.5	15.8	104.4	115.4	99.6
season	15.9	15.9		95.1	99.7
opponent	15.6	15.5		102.3	98.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.6	17.6	15.0	17.5	16.4
DAL	13.2	17.5	16.3	15.2	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Mills	31	31	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.12	4	-15	19	16.7	16.2	0.52	15.9	15.2	0.67
Erick Dampier	47	48	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.07	-1	-10	9	16.3	16.4	-0.05	16.4	14.4	2.02
Bimbo Coles	46	47	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	-8	5	16.4	16.4	0.01	15.9	15.0	0.98
Donyell Marshall	73	75	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.17	-1	-10	9	16.3	16.8	-0.56	15.8	13.9	1.93
Adonal Foyle	27	26	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.03	-11	0	-11	16.3	16.4	-0.10	14.2	16.0	-1.83
Antawn Jamison	56	57	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	-2	-7	16.3	16.5	-0.26	15.8	14.9	0.97
Muggsy Bogues	44	44	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.14	-8	-3	-5	16.4	16.4	-0.01	15.0	15.9	-0.98
Terry Cummings	43	43	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.10	-10	-1	-9	16.4	16.3	0.05	14.4	16.4	-2.02
John Starks	76	77	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.09	-14	3	-17	16.4	15.9	0.52	15.0	18.0	-3.00

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Bradley	55	56	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.18	16	-5	21	16.0	14.6	1.36	18.1	13.5	4.65
Hubert Davis	85	84	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.14	15	-4	19	15.1	21.0	-5.93	16.2	18.2	-1.93
Erick Strickland	54	54	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.23	11	0	11	15.2	15.9	-0.73	17.3	15.0	2.32
Michael Finley	91	90	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.18	11	0	11	15.5	0.0	15.46	16.4	0.0	16.37
Dirk Nowitzki	58	57	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.18	7	4	3	16.3	14.0	2.29	16.1	16.9	-0.81
Gary Trent	41	41	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.00	2	9	-7	15.4	15.5	-0.04	15.8	16.9	-1.08
Hot Rod Williams	26	25	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.05	1	10	-9	14.2	16.0	-1.78	13.7	17.4	-3.72
Chris Anstey	29	27	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	14	-17	15.3	15.5	-0.22	15.6	16.7	-1.16
A.C. Green	16	16	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.01	-5	16	-21	16.1	15.3	0.73	15.9	16.5	-0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.6,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.65,0.69,0.81,0.83,0.75,0.97,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 102, GSW 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.44,0.32,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.76,0.78,0.86,0.96,0.97,0.98,1	93.6%
LAC 100, TOR 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.62,0.73,0.74,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1	93.1%
UTA 83, LAL 90	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.5,0.59,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.67,0.66,0.58,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.41,0.54,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.79,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.96,0.99,0.98,1	93.0%