NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	102		Excitement	8.3 [182]		MVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): +44.4%
Golden State Warriors	105		Comeback	2.5 [668]		LVP	Baron Davis (GSW): -30.3%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Quincy Douby	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.07	0.00	2	100%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	6	62%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Spencer Hawes	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mikki Moore	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Metta World Peace	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.09,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	21	48%	0.05	3	-0.07	6	50%	-0.04
Beno Udrih	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	7	43%	0.03	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05	0.02	-0.05	0.02	15	61%	0.10	4	-0.15	1	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08	0.00	-0.05	0.04	21	53%	0.06	4	-0.14	3	67%	-0.02
Kevin Martin	-0.27	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.27,-0.27	-0.20	-0.08	-0.01	16	25%	-0.20	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.44	0.44	0.23	0.24	0.02	15	79%	0.50	2	-0.05	13	77%	0.02
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.00	19	60%	0.22	4	-0.11	5	80%	0.01
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.03	-0.02	6	56%	0.07	4	-0.07	4	25%	-0.05
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	11	50%	0.04	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Kelenna Azubuike	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	13	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.22,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.30	-0.19	-0.12	-0.01	19	24%	-0.20	3	-0.11	3	33%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	0.8	29.8	16.3	30.7	3.3	38.3	144.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +20.4%

GSW +0.2%

GSW +14.1%

GSW +15.7%

SAC -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	GSW	NBA	SAC	GSW	NBA
this game	13.9	13.8	15.4	99.0	100.0	105.7
season	14.9	13.5		105.6	109.8
opponent	15.1	15.0		107.9	108.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	15.0	13.8	14.0	13.0	13.9
GSW	12.7	14.5	12.7	15.3	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dahntay Jones	4	3	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.06	2	-5	7	11.0	14.0	-3.04	27.0	13.4	13.62
Mikki Moore	45	48	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.03	0	-3	3	14.8	13.2	1.60	13.5	14.0	-0.58
Spencer Hawes	7	7	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.05	-4	1	-5	13.3	14.0	-0.68	12.6	13.9	-1.29
Quincy Douby	22	19	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.10	-1	-2	1	15.0	13.6	1.31	14.2	13.7	0.54
Beno Udrih	36	36	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-2	1	14.4	13.6	0.80	14.9	13.2	1.66
Brad Miller	84	87	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.35	6	-9	15	13.6	15.4	-1.84	13.4	15.6	-2.22
Metta World Peace	89	90	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.37	-2	-1	-1	13.8	14.9	-1.16	13.2	17.3	-4.08
Mike Bibby	72	75	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.29	-5	2	-7	13.8	14.3	-0.48	13.1	15.5	-2.37
John Salmons	71	71	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.45	-4	1	-5	13.7	14.4	-0.66	14.9	11.4	3.49
Kevin Martin	85	89	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.53	-6	3	-9	13.9	13.8	0.11	13.7	14.2	-0.56

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	93	91	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.19	14	-11	25	13.5	16.0	-2.52	14.6	8.8	5.76
Stephen Jackson	100	98	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.42	6	-3	9	14.0	8.4	5.64	13.8	15.4	-1.55
Monta Ellis	83	82	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.35	7	-4	11	13.6	14.4	-0.81	14.2	12.8	1.40
Al Harrington	76	75	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.30	8	-5	13	12.5	17.1	-4.60	13.9	14.0	-0.16
Matt Barnes	46	46	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.49	-2	5	-7	15.5	12.4	3.15	13.6	14.2	-0.61
Andris Biedrins	49	47	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	-1	5	13.0	14.4	-1.37	13.8	14.0	-0.21
Chris Webber	32	30	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.02	3	0	3	13.7	13.8	-0.12	14.6	13.6	0.96
Kelenna Azubuike	17	16	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.19	-6	9	-15	12.8	14.0	-1.20	12.7	14.1	-1.39
CJ Watson	9	8	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.07	-5	8	-13	17.2	13.4	3.77	10.4	14.2	-3.85
Mickael Pietrus	20	22	-0.43	0.93	-1.35	-0.02	-14	17	-31	16.4	13.1	3.31	12.7	14.2	-1.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.44,0.32,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.76,0.78,0.86,0.96,0.97,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 94, DAL 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.6,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.65,0.69,0.81,0.83,0.75,0.97,1,1,1	93.6%
SAC 104, TOR 115	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.4,0.28,0.38,0.22,0.52,0.58,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.78,0.92,0.96,0.99,1,1	93.2%
SAS 85, POR 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.7,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.58,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.85,0.85,0.94,0.99,1	92.8%