NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	98		Excitement	7.0 [234]		MVP	Tom Gugliotta (PHX): +21.4%
Denver Nuggets	87		Comeback	8.1 [124]		LVP	Johnny Taylor (DEN): -27.1%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tom Gugliotta	0.21	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.07	0.14	-0.00	15	63%	0.24	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Chris Morris	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.06	0.03	7	56%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
George McCloud	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.01	11	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Longley	0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	3	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Alvin Sims	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.06	-0.06	0.01	18	60%	0.03	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.02
Toby Bailey	-0.03	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	8	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	4	10%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Danny Manning	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.13	-0.06	-0.00	7	17%	-0.16	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Jason Kidd	-0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.2,-0.2	-0.12	-0.09	-0.00	16	34%	-0.14	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Washington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.04	0.00	5	110%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.03	0.06	-0.03	13	50%	0.13	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.15	-0.05	0.06	11	83%	0.08	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	6	74%	0.06	3	-0.06	7	57%	-0.02
Carl Herrera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	5	36%	-0.02	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	15	44%	-0.05	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.15	-0.03	-0.03	14	37%	-0.02	5	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01
Johnny Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.15	-0.12	-0.00	4	0%	-0.13	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	3.4	27.3	15.4	23.2	2.4	30.7	125.4
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -34.5%

PHX +8.8%

PHX +51.9%

PHX +26.0%

DEN -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	DEN	NBA	PHX	DEN	NBA
this game	17.8	15.8	15.8	114.0	102.4	99.6
season	15.3	15.5		102.7	100.7
opponent	15.6	15.9		107.6	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	17.3	17.6	14.2	23.3	17.8
DEN	14.0	14.3	18.5	16.7	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tom Gugliotta	66	66	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.27	14	-3	17	17.6	18.7	-1.11	15.8	15.9	-0.16
Chris Morris	30	29	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.27	13	-2	15	21.2	16.1	5.10	15.2	16.2	-0.99
Jason Kidd	82	80	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.21	12	-1	13	17.5	26.0	-8.55	16.0	13.0	3.00
Clifford Robinson	71	72	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.13	14	-3	17	18.5	14.8	3.69	16.2	14.0	2.15
George McCloud	57	57	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.02	13	-2	15	16.2	21.1	-4.86	16.9	13.6	3.31
Danny Manning	51	47	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.10	-1	12	-13	18.2	17.3	0.95	16.3	15.3	1.01
Luc Longley	25	26	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	10	-9	15.0	19.0	-3.96	14.9	16.2	-1.35
Alvin Sims	9	9	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.06	-2	13	-15	19.2	17.7	1.53	14.2	16.0	-1.79
Toby Bailey	19	20	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.05	-6	17	-23	18.8	17.6	1.27	12.6	16.8	-4.15
Pat Garrity	20	19	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.09	-3	14	-17	18.7	17.6	1.11	15.9	15.8	0.16

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carl Herrera	19	18	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.02	-2	-9	7	18.4	15.1	3.35	14.7	18.7	-3.95
Eric Washington	44	43	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.01	-2	-9	7	16.5	15.1	1.45	20.0	15.7	4.30
Danny Fortson	44	47	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.11	-7	-4	-3	15.1	16.6	-1.42	18.1	17.6	0.52
Johnny Taylor	50	50	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.13	-8	-3	-5	16.3	15.1	1.21	18.3	17.2	1.03
Bryant Stith	75	76	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.12	-9	-2	-7	15.9	15.3	0.59	16.4	29.1	-12.73
Chauncey Billups	61	62	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.15	-8	-3	-5	15.2	17.3	-2.10	17.5	18.6	-1.08
Antonio McDyess	60	61	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.24	-7	-4	-3	14.9	18.0	-3.03	19.3	14.3	5.03
Nick Van Exel	72	73	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.17	-12	1	-13	16.0	15.1	0.88	17.5	19.9	-2.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.69,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.8,0.87,0.8,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.74,0.65,0.79,0.77,0.81,0.72,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.53,0.38,0.16,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 95, CLE 87	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.71,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.4,0.47,0.31,0.16,0.01,0.09,0	93.4%
DET 104, POR 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.84,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.76,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.7,0.81,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.25,0.15,0.02,0,0	92.1%
CLE 106, NYK 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.75,0.79,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.79,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.79,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.72,0.63,0.53,0.59,0.47,0.47,0.22,0.09,0.04,0	91.7%