NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	88		Excitement	8.4 [110]		MVP	Darrell Armstrong (ORL): +51.4%
Indiana Pacers	87		Comeback	3.8 [106]		LVP	Travis Best (IND): -40.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Armstrong	0.51	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.00	11	68%	0.68	5	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Nick Anderson	0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.13	0.20	-0.00	18	64%	0.33	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
B.J. Armstrong	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	4	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Schayes	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.06	0.00	3	75%	0.12	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.03
Ike Austin	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	125%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.01	11	58%	0.06	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Matt Harpring	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	-0.36	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.22,-0.36	-0.03	-0.31	0.01	17	47%	-0.31	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.07,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.03	0.26	0.00	16	51%	0.28	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.04	-0.00	6	71%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Derrick McKey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Mullin	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	9	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	8	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	5	100%	0.06
Rik Smits	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	11	46%	-0.00	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Sam Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	4	37%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	-0.00	10	50%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.4	-0.40	-0.11	-0.32	-0.03	5	8%	-0.38	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.4	26.3	17.5	20.3	2.0	42.0	135.2
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +95.4%

IND -17.1%

IND -23.6%

IND -10.5%

ORL +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	IND	NBA	ORL	IND	NBA
this game	17.9	17.7	15.8	111.4	104.8	99.6
season	16.1	16.4		98.0	105.4
opponent	16.0	15.6		101.2	95.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.0	19.9	17.5	18.4	17.9
IND	15.3	19.1	19.4	17.6	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anfernee Hardaway	64	67	0.89	-0.39	1.27	0.56	11	-10	21	17.8	18.3	-0.47	17.4	18.9	-1.49
Dan Schayes	39	38	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.69	2	-1	3	18.9	16.9	1.95	16.8	18.4	-1.58
Nick Anderson	66	69	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.39	6	-5	11	16.9	22.8	-5.84	18.7	12.6	6.05
Darrell Armstrong	63	66	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.40	4	-3	7	17.3	20.3	-3.04	17.6	17.9	-0.34
Horace Grant	73	77	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.42	0	1	-1	17.7	19.8	-2.11	17.9	14.2	3.78
Ike Austin	27	31	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.11	12	-11	23	15.4	19.2	-3.71	19.8	16.4	3.35
B.J. Armstrong	16	17	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.07	-3	4	-7	20.3	17.3	3.04	17.9	17.6	0.34
Michael Doleac	10	11	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.04	-7	8	-15	20.5	17.5	2.99	14.6	18.1	-3.50
Matt Harpring	16	16	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	-0.05	-8	9	-17	20.0	17.3	2.65	13.0	18.8	-5.79
Bo Outlaw	21	23	-0.41	0.92	-1.33	-0.06	-12	13	-25	20.2	17.1	3.14	17.8	17.6	0.21

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Perkins	25	24	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.12	6	-7	13	17.9	17.6	0.29	19.9	17.0	2.86
Mark Jackson	42	40	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.14	-6	5	-11	18.1	17.2	0.90	16.7	19.1	-2.35
Derrick McKey	54	52	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.42	11	-12	23	17.4	18.1	-0.71	19.3	15.1	4.27
Dale Davis	41	39	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.10	-10	9	-19	18.4	17.0	1.37	16.6	19.1	-2.46
Chris Mullin	29	27	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.11	-12	11	-23	18.1	17.4	0.71	15.1	19.3	-4.27
Rik Smits	35	33	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	10	-21	18.7	16.9	1.75	17.4	18.2	-0.79
Antonio Davis	48	46	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.63	10	-11	21	16.9	18.7	-1.75	18.2	17.4	0.79
Jalen Rose	38	36	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.59	6	-7	13	17.2	18.1	-0.95	19.7	16.4	3.27
Reggie Miller	62	59	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.33	-4	3	-7	17.5	18.3	-0.88	16.8	21.0	-4.24
Travis Best	41	39	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.61	5	-6	11	17.2	18.1	-0.90	19.1	16.7	2.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.72,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 82, BOS 81	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.64,0.63,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.47,0.81,0.72,0.69,0.42,0	91.8%
PHX 109, SEA 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.66,0.72,0.5,0.52,0.33,0.33,0.53,0.53,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.78,0.74,0	91.4%
LAL 87, DEN 86	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.38,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.44,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.73,0.79,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.77,0.69,0	90.6%