NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	87		Excitement	9.1 [110]		MVP	Rick Fox (LAL): +4.4%
Denver Nuggets	86		Comeback	4.5 [330]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -28.3%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rick Fox	0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	-0.01	0.02	12	71%	0.16	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,-0.17,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	22	55%	0.08	3	-0.07	7	86%	0.01
Mark Madsen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Devean George	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.04	-0.00	7	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Mitch Richmond	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	3	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	6	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	9	54%	-0.06	2	-0.05	8	75%	-0.06
Robert Horry	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	8	31%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.05	-0.00	7	14%	-0.09	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.06	-0.01	12	46%	0.10	1	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	42%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.03	-0.03	0.10	-0.09	0.03	13	73%	0.04	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	6	44%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.13,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	0.00	11	27%	-0.09	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.06,-0.12,-0.28	-0.28	-0.02	-0.27	-0.00	19	57%	-0.11	4	-0.17	6	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.6	28.4	16.4	26.1	1.8	27.2	127.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -10.2%

LAL +11.4%

LAL +0.3%

LAL +12.4%

LAL +36.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	DEN	NBA	LAL	DEN	NBA
this game	15.5	16.2	15.6	94.6	95.6	102.3
season	15.3	16.1		106.9	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.4		105.9	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	15.2	14.6	15.8	16.6	15.5
DEN	14.8	14.8	15.5	20.2	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rick Fox	67	64	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.63	3	-2	5	15.9	14.3	1.58	16.7	14.9	1.83
Kobe Bryant	69	65	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.61	3	-2	5	15.7	14.7	0.97	16.4	15.7	0.65
Samaki Walker	78	75	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.61	3	-2	5	15.8	13.7	2.07	16.2	16.3	-0.09
Derek Fisher	44	42	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.54	3	-2	5	16.0	15.0	0.98	17.9	14.7	3.17
Devean George	45	47	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.45	-6	7	-13	15.8	15.2	0.56	16.7	15.6	1.16
Mark Madsen	43	41	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.07	2	-1	3	14.8	16.1	-1.27	15.2	17.0	-1.83
Robert Horry	30	30	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.10	2	-1	3	15.2	15.6	-0.35	15.2	16.7	-1.43
Lindsey Hunter	47	46	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.04	-1	2	-3	14.9	16.1	-1.22	14.8	17.6	-2.74
Slava Medvedenko	14	15	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.14	-2	3	-5	13.7	15.8	-2.07	16.3	16.2	0.09
Mitch Richmond	23	25	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.14	-2	3	-5	14.7	15.7	-0.97	15.7	16.4	-0.65

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George McCloud	50	49	0.35	-0.85	1.21	0.15	7	-8	15	15.8	16.6	-0.78	15.3	15.7	-0.35
Ryan Bowen	50	51	0.24	-0.74	0.98	0.03	7	-8	15	14.9	17.8	-2.99	15.6	15.3	0.23
Avery Johnson	27	27	0.14	-0.64	0.79	0.14	0	-1	1	16.6	16.0	0.58	15.6	15.4	0.12
Scott Williams	49	51	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.00	-4	3	-7	15.9	16.5	-0.59	15.7	15.2	0.45
Calbert Cheaney	38	37	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.48	3	-4	7	17.6	15.2	2.41	15.7	15.3	0.39
Raef LaFrentz	65	67	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.44	-7	6	-13	16.7	14.8	1.98	15.0	16.8	-1.77
Voshon Lenard	54	57	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.63	-2	1	-3	15.7	16.9	-1.26	15.4	15.6	-0.21
James Posey	52	54	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.52	-6	5	-11	17.1	15.0	2.10	15.9	14.8	1.15
Nick Van Exel	65	67	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.61	-3	2	-5	15.9	17.0	-1.18	15.4	15.8	-0.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.38,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.44,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.73,0.79,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.77,0.69,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 89, SEA 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.67,0.81,0.63,0.68,0.58,0	91.4%
DAL 101, BOS 97	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.28,0.36,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.52,0.58,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.68,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.75,0.85,0.86,0.84,0	91.4%
MIL 102, UTA 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.7,0.65,0.78,0.76,0.55,0.55,0.74,0	91.3%