NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	101		Excitement	8.6 [164]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +36.6%
Boston Celtics	97		Comeback	10.2 [86]		LVP	Kevin Garnett (BOS): -16.7%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.37	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.37	0.22	0.17	0.03	14	76%	0.37	0	0.00	10	100%	0.08
Jason Kidd	0.31	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.31	-0.02	0.34	0.01	9	56%	0.55	3	-0.24	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	11	57%	0.12	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Jason Terry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.01	15	53%	0.09	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.05
Tyson Chandler	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.04	-0.00	10	70%	0.11	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	11	46%	-0.03	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.14	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14	0.00	-0.13	0.01	7	44%	-0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.02	-0.01	18	62%	0.16	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.06	-0.00	6	67%	0.13	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.02	0.10	0.00	7	81%	0.28	4	-0.16	2	50%	-0.02
Semih Erden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Von Wafer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	10	50%	0.03	3	-0.11	4	75%	-0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	-0.14	0.00	9	44%	-0.10	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-0.11	0.02	16	47%	-0.11	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	3.5	29.7	18.0	31.8	3.4	36.4	145.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +43.8%

DAL +18.2%

DAL +5.3%

BOS -14.7%

BOS -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	BOS	NBA	DAL	BOS	NBA
this game	16.8	16.0	15.5	114.8	110.2	105.7
season	15.7	15.7		108.5	104.8
opponent	15.8	15.7		99.6	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	17.0	15.8	18.0	16.5	16.8
BOS	16.5	14.9	17.1	15.5	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kidd	67	66	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.45	11	-7	18	16.8	16.7	0.12	16.3	14.9	1.41
Tyson Chandler	68	69	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.33	9	-5	14	16.7	16.8	-0.05	16.2	15.2	0.96
Dirk Nowitzki	65	68	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.33	7	-3	10	16.9	16.3	0.56	15.3	18.2	-2.89
Shawn Marion	51	50	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.42	3	1	2	16.1	17.6	-1.48	15.8	16.2	-0.48
Jason Terry	63	64	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.32	3	1	2	16.2	18.2	-2.01	16.0	15.8	0.24
Brian Cardinal	3	2	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.05	-1	5	-6	12.7	16.9	-4.24	22.0	15.8	6.17
Ian Mahinmi	7	7	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	5	-6	18.4	16.6	1.81	14.7	16.1	-1.36
Brendan Haywood	12	11	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.05	-4	8	-12	17.2	16.7	0.57	14.7	16.1	-1.42
DeShawn Stevenson	53	53	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.06	-1	5	-6	17.1	16.3	0.84	17.2	14.1	3.03
Jose Juan Barea	51	50	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.04	-6	10	-16	17.4	15.8	1.59	15.2	17.0	-1.87

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Von Wafer	12	12	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-6	8	15.5	16.0	-0.54	15.6	16.9	-1.36
Glen Davis	36	36	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.08	-2	-2	0	16.8	15.4	1.42	17.2	16.5	0.69
Semih Erden	14	14	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-5	6	14.7	16.2	-1.49	16.1	16.9	-0.82
Marquis Daniels	23	25	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-6	8	15.5	16.1	-0.60	17.0	16.7	0.39
Nate Robinson	24	25	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.05	-4	0	-4	16.1	15.9	0.22	15.5	17.3	-1.73
Kevin Garnett	63	62	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.34	-1	-3	2	16.0	16.0	0.01	17.1	15.9	1.24
Paul Pierce	74	73	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-1	-2	16.2	14.7	1.49	16.8	16.5	0.27
Rajon Rondo	73	71	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.33	-6	2	-8	15.9	16.1	-0.20	16.4	18.2	-1.75
Ray Allen	61	61	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.37	-5	1	-6	16.0	16.0	-0.05	16.9	16.4	0.46
Kendrick Perkins	60	61	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.43	-4	0	-4	15.7	16.5	-0.78	17.1	15.9	1.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.28,0.36,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.52,0.58,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.68,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.75,0.85,0.86,0.84,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 87, DEN 86	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.38,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.44,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.73,0.79,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.77,0.69,0	91.4%
GSW 98, MIN 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.62,0.73,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.76,0.63,0.78,0.59,0	90.8%
CHH 107, WAS 105	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.69,0.6,0.72,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.58,0	90.7%