NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	89		Excitement	8.5 [158]		MVP	Detlef Schrempf (SEA): +32.6%
Seattle SuperSonics	87		Comeback	4.6 [106]		LVP	Nate McMillan (SEA): -38.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.32	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.32	0.03	0.28	-0.01	17	69%	0.45	5	-0.13	11	82%	0.06
Jaren Jackson	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.06	-0.01	7	56%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.06
Avery Johnson	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.04	0.01	9	65%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Brad Lohaus	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Herrera	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
Reggie Geary	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.24	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.04,-0.24	-0.09	-0.15	0.00	9	65%	0.11	6	-0.36	16	75%	0.08

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Detlef Schrempf	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.33	0.33	0.09	0.19	-0.04	20	57%	0.33	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Greg Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	6	69%	0.10	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Hersey Hawkins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.04	0.06	-0.02	6	40%	0.06	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jim McIlvaine	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Payton	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.17,-0.23,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.04	0.02	20	45%	-0.06	1	-0.05	4	50%	-0.06
Vin Baker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	9	37%	-0.10	1	-0.03	6	17%	-0.08
Sam Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.22	-0.22	-0.10	-0.12	-0.01	8	22%	-0.18	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Nate McMillan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,-0.38	-0.38	-0.03	-0.35	0.00	6	67%	-0.28	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	62.3	2.7	30.4	16.0	24.0	1.8	35.3	172.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +36.3%

SAS +46.6%

SAS +2.3%

SEA -40.4%

SAS +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	SEA	NBA	SAS	SEA	NBA
this game	17.4	14.9	15.6	98.9	98.9	102.5
season	15.9	15.3		100.9	109.3
opponent	16.2	15.9		102.3	97.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.1	18.5	18.1	17.1	17.4
SEA	13.1	15.8	14.6	16.4	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaren Jackson	69	69	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.36	8	-6	14	16.4	20.7	-4.26	15.4	13.1	2.40
David Robinson	59	59	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.42	4	-2	6	16.2	19.6	-3.42	14.7	15.3	-0.56
Avery Johnson	62	59	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.57	-2	4	-6	17.5	17.1	0.43	14.5	15.8	-1.34
Tim Duncan	87	84	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.46	2	0	2	17.3	21.7	-4.41	15.2	9.7	5.43
Reggie Geary	30	30	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.22	3	-1	4	16.1	18.0	-1.95	15.3	14.7	0.61
Will Perdue	57	54	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.04	6	-4	10	17.8	16.7	1.11	14.0	16.4	-2.46
Carl Herrera	12	12	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.02	-1	3	-4	17.9	17.3	0.60	15.5	14.8	0.66
Brad Lohaus	27	25	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.08	-10	12	-22	20.5	16.1	4.40	13.3	15.6	-2.31

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Anthony	34	35	0.44	-0.94	1.39	0.09	12	-14	26	15.4	14.6	0.73	19.7	15.9	3.79
Vin Baker	63	66	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.02	5	-7	12	14.4	16.2	-1.77	18.5	14.3	4.24
Jim McIlvaine	16	18	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.05	-1	-1	0	15.7	14.7	1.00	15.8	17.8	-2.03
Jerome Kersey	7	7	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	2	-6	10.9	15.3	-4.43	16.7	17.5	-0.74
Aaron Williams	7	7	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.07	-6	4	-10	22.0	14.3	7.68	13.9	17.7	-3.84
Hersey Hawkins	68	69	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.46	2	-4	6	14.5	16.3	-1.84	17.2	18.2	-1.03
Detlef Schrempf	75	75	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.38	-3	1	-4	14.6	17.0	-2.43	17.2	18.4	-1.20
Gary Payton	79	81	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.38	-7	5	-12	15.5	10.0	5.49	17.0	20.8	-3.75
Sam Perkins	46	47	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.48	-4	2	-6	14.3	15.6	-1.31	16.7	18.1	-1.42
Nate McMillan	45	45	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.61	-4	2	-6	15.4	14.4	1.00	17.3	17.5	-0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.67,0.81,0.63,0.68,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 100, HOU 99	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.5,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.34,0.37,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.58,0	93.5%
GSW 95, POR 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.48,0.44,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.66,0.68,0.54,0.68,0.73,0	92.9%
POR 100, NYK 95	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.34,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.42,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.9,0.86,0.71,0.45,0.58,0	92.2%