NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	100		Excitement	9.4 [86]		MVP	Charles Oakley (TOR): +29.1%
Houston Rockets	99		Comeback	2.7 [476]		LVP	Cuttino Mobley (HOU): -46.1%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charles Oakley	0.29	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.1,0.29	0.02	0.27	0.01	7	71%	0.34	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.02	13	57%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Kevin Willis	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	10	50%	0.03	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Michael Stewart	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.08	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.1,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	25	52%	-0.01	2	-0.07	17	76%	-0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.11,-0.2,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	15	33%	-0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-0.02	10	27%	-0.07	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.03

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelvin Cato	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.10	0.01	7	74%	0.16	0	0.00	5	80%	0.06
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.05	0.02	11	67%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Matt Bullard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Thomas Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryce Drew	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	0.04	9	52%	-0.02	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.05
Carlos Rogers	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.00	-0.07	0.02	13	58%	-0.05	2	-0.05	7	71%	0.02
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	7	25%	-0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Steve Francis	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.14	-0.08	-0.01	9	25%	-0.12	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.21,-0.25,-0.46	-0.46	-0.16	-0.32	-0.02	24	40%	-0.30	5	-0.16	4	75%	0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.2	0.2	23.7	14.6	30.4	2.0	39.0	141.0
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +53.1%

HOU -14.2%

TOR +7.6%

TOR +6.5%

HOU -3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	HOU	NBA	TOR	HOU	NBA
this game	14.1	14.7	15.2	98.0	101.0	101.7
season	15.5	15.4		101.8	102.4
opponent	14.6	14.9		103.5	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	13.0	15.8	15.0	13.0	14.1
HOU	14.8	14.2	13.8	15.9	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Oakley	62	60	0.89	-0.39	1.27	0.45	15	-14	29	13.0	15.9	-2.84	15.3	13.7	1.60
Antonio Davis	75	73	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.62	7	-6	13	13.5	15.8	-2.27	14.9	14.0	0.94
Vince Carter	92	89	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.49	8	-7	15	13.7	18.3	-4.60	15.1	10.1	5.01
Alvin Williams	70	66	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.48	7	-6	13	13.4	15.8	-2.38	14.7	14.6	0.15
Doug Christie	68	65	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.18	4	-3	7	13.5	15.4	-1.81	13.9	16.2	-2.34
Tracy McGrady	56	52	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.35	-9	10	-19	15.5	12.5	3.00	14.0	15.5	-1.49
Michael Stewart	8	7	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	-0.06	-4	5	-9	17.4	13.9	3.50	12.7	14.8	-2.10
Kevin Willis	27	26	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	-0.17	-4	5	-9	16.4	13.3	3.07	14.1	14.9	-0.75
Muggsy Bogues	52	52	-0.54	1.04	-1.58	0.02	-19	20	-39	15.8	12.4	3.39	15.0	14.3	0.68

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walt Williams	46	49	0.29	-0.79	1.09	-0.15	15	-16	31	14.2	15.1	-0.84	15.0	13.3	1.68
Kenny Thomas	13	14	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.08	5	-6	11	13.3	14.9	-1.56	17.1	13.7	3.39
Steve Francis	67	66	0.04	-0.54	0.59	0.07	-1	0	-1	15.3	13.4	1.87	14.5	13.4	1.09
Matt Bullard	26	26	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-3	5	14.1	14.9	-0.80	12.7	14.7	-2.00
Thomas Hamilton	13	13	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.10	-8	7	-15	18.1	14.1	3.94	11.2	14.6	-3.34
Bryce Drew	66	70	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.53	12	-13	25	14.2	15.5	-1.29	14.8	12.7	2.08
Cuttino Mobley	85	89	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.37	-7	6	-13	14.4	16.7	-2.34	13.8	16.3	-2.48
Shandon Anderson	56	58	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.29	-10	9	-19	14.6	14.7	-0.09	13.9	14.5	-0.54
Carlos Rogers	69	72	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.46	-5	4	-9	14.8	14.2	0.60	13.2	16.5	-3.29
Kelvin Cato	49	53	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.48	-8	7	-15	14.9	14.4	0.55	14.8	13.5	1.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.5,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.34,0.37,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 89, SEA 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.67,0.81,0.63,0.68,0.58,0	93.5%
GSW 95, POR 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.48,0.44,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.66,0.68,0.54,0.68,0.73,0	92.5%
MEM 97, PHX 91	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.3,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.31,0.4,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.65,0.54,0.61,0.46,0.55,0.27,0	91.4%