NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	104		Excitement	5.4 [448]		MVP	Johnny Taylor (DEN): +11.6%
Denver Nuggets	96		Comeback	2.6 [213]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -22.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Mills	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.01	11	58%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Antawn Jamison	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	8	62%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.01	0.02	13	61%	0.02	1	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Felton Spencer	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Starks	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	12	39%	0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	11	64%	0.09	4	-0.10	3	67%	-0.01
Bimbo Coles	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	4	25%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	9	58%	0.01	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Terry Cummings	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	8	44%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Johnny Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.14	0.01	0.04	4	133%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	70%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	10	57%	0.02	0	0.00	10	90%	0.05
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.08	-0.04	0.05	23	67%	0.12	4	-0.14	8	50%	-0.07
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	16	51%	0.01	2	-0.05	11	100%	0.04
Eric Washington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	2	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.02
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.19	-0.04	-0.00	7	0%	-0.13	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	1.7	29.2	14.8	24.5	1.8	36.2	130.1
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +24.4%

DEN -5.6%

GSW +16.3%

GSW +16.6%

DEN -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	17.1	14.9	15.8	114.3	107.9	99.6
season	15.9	15.5		95.1	100.7
opponent	15.6	15.5		107.6	98.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	16.0	16.3	19.8	16.7	17.1
DEN	14.0	14.3	17.1	14.6	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antawn Jamison	50	49	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.18	10	-2	12	18.0	16.0	2.05	16.1	13.4	2.72
Jason Caffey	46	46	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.15	10	-2	12	16.1	18.1	-2.05	16.6	13.1	3.54
Chris Mills	56	54	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	-3	14	16.4	18.2	-1.78	14.2	16.0	-1.86
Muggsy Bogues	47	45	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.28	3	5	-2	16.2	18.0	-1.83	14.9	14.9	-0.07
Erick Dampier	63	61	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.17	5	3	2	15.8	19.9	-4.07	14.9	14.8	0.11
Terry Cummings	25	25	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.01	6	2	4	17.7	16.8	0.83	15.1	14.8	0.31
Bimbo Coles	47	46	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.04	3	5	-2	17.2	16.9	0.28	14.8	15.0	-0.11
John Starks	62	61	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.25	-5	13	-18	17.5	16.3	1.18	14.5	15.9	-1.40
Donyell Marshall	47	46	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.19	-5	13	-18	18.4	15.7	2.70	13.3	16.6	-3.21
Adonal Foyle	6	6	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	7	-6	21.5	16.8	4.74	14.5	14.9	-0.43
Felton Spencer	6	6	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	7	-6	21.5	16.8	4.74	14.5	14.9	-0.43

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Fortson	47	48	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.03	-6	-2	-4	16.4	13.2	3.19	16.6	17.6	-0.96
Bryant Stith	39	40	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.01	-8	0	-8	15.4	14.5	0.82	16.2	17.8	-1.56
Eric Washington	42	42	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.17	-2	-6	4	15.5	14.4	1.05	16.5	17.6	-1.07
Eric Williams	50	50	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.27	1	-9	10	13.8	16.3	-2.55	17.6	16.4	1.16
Nick Van Exel	52	55	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.11	-5	-3	-2	15.7	13.8	1.86	16.3	18.2	-1.85
Johnny Taylor	56	57	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.31	-1	-7	6	14.3	15.8	-1.51	17.9	15.7	2.14
Chauncey Billups	78	79	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.21	-8	0	-8	14.3	19.5	-5.20	17.8	12.6	5.18
Antonio McDyess	81	84	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.22	-11	3	-14	14.7	16.7	-2.03	17.0	17.7	-0.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 117, NJN 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.28,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0	95.2%
CHI 119, BOS 103	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.41,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.3,0.29,0.2,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%
CLE 93, ATL 79	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.07,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0	94.3%