NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	119		Excitement	5.9 [624]		MVP	E'Twaun Moore (CHI): +20.8%
Boston Celtics	103		Comeback	2.0 [704]		LVP	Evan Turner (BOS): -9.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
E'Twaun Moore	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.10	0.10	0.00	4	112%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.07	-0.01	19	55%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Derrick Rose	0.12	0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.21	0.05	0.14	20	72%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.07	0.00	4	75%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.02	-0.00	10	75%	0.13	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	16	57%	0.12	3	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Taj Gibson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.02	11	52%	0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Nikola Mirotic	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	5	36%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Phil Pressey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	0.00	4	80%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	11	67%	0.12	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Zeller	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	8	67%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jared Sullinger	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	18	50%	0.04	1	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.02	0.04	14	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	7	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	11	46%	0.01	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.4	1.8	27.4	16.3	22.6	2.4	23.5	114.2
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +47.9%

BOS -1.0%

BOS -20.1%

CHI +21.9%

CHI +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	BOS	NBA	CHI	BOS	NBA
this game	15.4	15.1	15.1	126.6	108.4	104.2
season	15.5	14.3		105.4	103.1
opponent	15.4	15.2		103.3	102.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.3	16.4	12.9	17.1	15.4
BOS	13.0	13.6	17.1	17.2	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	77	78	0.58	-0.08	0.67	-0.06	22	-6	28	15.7	13.7	2.01	15.3	14.3	1.01
Jimmy Butler	79	80	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.08	15	1	14	15.0	17.2	-2.20	14.9	16.4	-1.51
Aaron Brooks	37	39	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.09	12	4	8	16.1	14.8	1.29	14.8	15.3	-0.48
Kirk Hinrich	67	68	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.13	14	2	12	15.1	15.9	-0.70	15.2	14.9	0.28
Nikola Mirotic	49	48	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.25	-1	17	-18	16.1	14.6	1.53	15.4	14.8	0.63
Pau Gasol	62	64	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.13	11	5	6	14.3	17.3	-3.02	14.7	16.1	-1.39
Derrick Rose	65	64	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.12	9	7	2	14.8	16.6	-1.79	15.6	14.1	1.58
E'Twaun Moore	34	34	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.16	-2	18	-20	16.8	14.5	2.21	14.9	15.3	-0.38

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Thornton	25	24	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.08	4	-20	24	17.2	14.4	2.81	14.3	15.7	-1.37
Marcus Smart	52	52	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.10	2	-18	20	15.7	14.4	1.38	15.9	14.7	1.24
Jared Sullinger	57	56	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.14	-10	-6	-4	15.8	14.2	1.61	15.2	15.6	-0.43
Evan Turner	70	69	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.07	-9	-7	-2	14.9	15.8	-0.86	14.5	17.7	-3.17
Brandon Bass	45	45	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.23	1	-17	18	14.8	15.4	-0.58	16.4	14.4	2.01
Tyler Zeller	42	39	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.23	-16	0	-16	13.8	16.2	-2.40	13.8	16.5	-2.70
Phil Pressey	27	27	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.15	-7	-9	2	16.0	14.8	1.27	17.3	14.6	2.68
Kelly Olynyk	46	48	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.19	-7	-9	2	15.8	14.4	1.40	15.9	14.8	1.03
Jae Crowder	44	42	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	0.04	-17	1	-18	13.7	16.3	-2.56	15.0	15.6	-0.55
Avery Bradley	67	68	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	0.12	-21	5	-26	14.6	16.3	-1.64	15.6	14.8	0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.41,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.3,0.29,0.2,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 104, DEN 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0,0,0	94.8%
DAL 122, PHX 117	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.61,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.24,0.16,0.22,0.2,0.13,0.03,0,0,0,0	94.1%
UTA 117, NJN 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.28,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0	93.6%