NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	92		Excitement	5.1 [479]		MVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): +9.0%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	1.3 [633]		LVP	Glenn Robinson (MIL): -13.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Armen Gilliam	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	6	69%	0.03	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Haywoode Workman	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01	0.08	-0.06	0.01	9	75%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	-0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.01	0.08	-0.06	0.03	19	61%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Dell Curry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	8	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.03	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.01
Chris Gatling	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	5	58%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Robert Traylor	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	3	62%	-0.00	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Vinny Del Negro	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14	-0.06	-0.05	0.03	14	42%	-0.11	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.02	8	77%	0.16	2	-0.07	14	79%	0.02
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	-0.00	0.00	16	71%	0.15	3	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	62%	0.05	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.01	12	56%	0.06	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Rex Walters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	7	44%	-0.01	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.5	26.5	16.5	24.4	2.4	35.4	131.6
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +47.7%

MIA +8.8%

MIA +0.1%

MIL -7.7%

MIA +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	16.5	17.4	15.8	107.0	113.1	99.6
season	15.8	16.6		102.4	101.3
opponent	16.7	16.4		96.8	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.9	15.1	19.2	15.8	16.5
MIA	16.1	18.4	15.8	19.2	17.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Traylor	27	23	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.03	2	-5	7	14.7	17.3	-2.58	17.4	17.4	0.02
Haywoode Workman	55	52	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.25	9	-12	21	15.7	17.9	-2.28	16.9	18.3	-1.40
Tim Thomas	31	31	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.17	3	-6	9	17.7	15.8	1.93	16.8	17.8	-0.97
Chris Gatling	8	7	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.04	-6	3	-9	22.5	15.9	6.64	17.9	17.4	0.48
Glenn Robinson	60	58	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.37	7	-10	17	16.1	17.3	-1.19	17.7	16.9	0.77
Ray Allen	70	69	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.47	8	-11	19	15.8	19.5	-3.71	17.2	18.5	-1.36
Michael Curry	33	32	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.03	-11	8	-19	15.5	17.1	-1.51	16.7	17.8	-1.08
Ervin Johnson	34	33	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.03	-10	7	-17	17.8	15.6	2.13	15.9	18.4	-2.43
Dell Curry	40	41	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.34	-1	-2	1	16.4	16.6	-0.19	18.6	16.3	2.28
Armen Gilliam	41	42	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.32	-4	1	-5	17.0	16.0	1.05	18.4	16.5	1.93
Vinny Del Negro	31	32	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.16	-12	9	-21	17.9	15.7	2.28	18.3	16.9	1.40

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	57	61	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.22	12	-9	21	17.1	18.1	-1.08	17.6	13.7	3.94
Terry Porter	51	52	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.26	8	-5	13	17.4	17.4	0.04	15.9	17.3	-1.35
Dan Majerle	55	58	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.33	3	0	3	17.4	17.5	-0.15	16.7	16.0	0.76
Jamal Mashburn	63	64	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.18	4	-1	5	16.9	19.1	-2.24	17.1	14.6	2.47
Clar. Weatherspoon	28	28	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.13	5	-2	7	19.1	16.6	2.48	17.0	16.2	0.72
P.J. Brown	65	66	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.40	-6	9	-15	16.6	20.1	-3.41	16.1	17.7	-1.66
Rex Walters	29	29	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.13	1	2	-1	19.1	16.5	2.58	15.7	16.9	-1.19
Tim Hardaway	60	62	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.34	-10	13	-23	17.3	17.7	-0.41	15.5	19.0	-3.50
Keith Askins	12	10	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.08	-2	5	-7	19.0	17.2	1.85	16.3	16.5	-0.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.75,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.66,0.72,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.9,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.91,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 92, UTA 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.4,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.62,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.66,0.86,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
NOH 92, SAC 107	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.65,0.63,0.7,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.58,0.62,0.7,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
CHI 89, TOR 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.75,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.69,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.99,1,1	94.6%